Democratic-primary voters have cast about 25.0% more ballots than at this point in 2022. Republican-primary voters have cast about 4.0% fewer.
Our 2022 trends estimate puts the last two early-voting days at about 438,000 ballots. It puts Election Day at 1.3 million to 1.6 million votes.
Republican-primary voters would cast about 527,000 to 677,000 of the Election Day votes, and Democratic-primary voters about 289,000 to 351,000. Voters with no party primary would cast the rest.
Voters who usually vote early supply about 129,000 of the Thursday and Friday ballots, but only about 15% of Election Day. Most of the in-person vote still to come is from voters we cannot measure in advance.
Why Forecasting Needs Assumptions
The final result depends on how many voters turn out in person on Thursday, Friday and Election Day. We test how the voters still out behave on one group with a clear record, voters who usually vote early.
Who Counts as a Usual Early Voter
- Georgia voters do not register by party. Republican-primary voters are those whose last Republican or Democratic primary ballot, through Oct. 8, 2026, was a Republican one. Democratic-primary voters are the same for a Democratic ballot.
- Usual early voters cast an accepted early in-person ballot in both the 2022 and 2024 general elections and are on the Oct. 8, 2026 voter list. A mail ballot in 2020 does not make anyone a mail voter this year.
- Not yet voted means no accepted ballot of any method recorded in this release, which covers ballots through Wednesday, Oct. 28. The test of past behavior is in person only.
- Voters still out with no 2026 mail or electronic ballot request or issue would vote in person, if at all. Of voters still out, 2,609 Republican-primary and 2,659 Democratic-primary voters have a 2026 mail or electronic ballot record. That leaves 269,404 Republican-primary and 178,247 Democratic-primary voters with no 2026 mail or electronic ballot request or issue.
- Comparison groups apply the same test earlier. The 2022 group voted early in person in 2018 and 2020, and the 2024 group in 2020 and 2022. Each is measured six days before its Election Day.
Ballots by Party Compared With 2022
Democratic-primary voters have cast 1,013,672 accepted ballots through Wednesday, Oct. 28. That is about 25.0% more than the 810,805 at the same point in 2022.
Republican-primary voters have cast 837,597 accepted ballots. That is about 4.0% fewer than the 872,075 at this point in 2022.
Democratic-primary voters have cast about a quarter more ballots than at this point in 2022
Scroll horizontally to see the full chart.
All accepted ballots, in person, by mail or electronic, through six days before Election Day. Party is each voter’s last Republican or Democratic primary ballot before the election; voters with neither are not shown. Counts match the Georgia Early Voting Dashboard.
Source: Civic Forge Solutions analysis of Georgia Secretary of State ballot records, voter history and voter lists; Civic Forge Solutions 2026 Early Voting Dashboard
Party here means each voter’s last party primary, and those labels drift between elections. Among usual early voters, 36,082 had a Republican label in 2022 and a Democratic one now. Another 15,997 moved the other way.
Democratic Voters Still Out: Who Is Voting More Than Usual
Democratic-primary voters who usually vote early are well ahead of their 2022 pace. Of 823,636 in the group, 180,906 have no accepted ballot recorded. That is 22.0%, against 29.2% for the 2022 comparison group at this point.
The largest improvements are among voters under 50. Among Democratic-primary voters 18 to 34, 36.5% have not voted, against 52.9% (27,775) at this point in 2022. Voters 35 to 49 are 8.7 points ahead.
Voters 50 to 64 are 2.5 points ahead, and voters 65 and older are within half a point of 2022.
The largest Democratic-primary improvements are among voters under 50; every Republican-primary age group is a little behind 2022
Scroll horizontally to see the full chart.
Usual early voters with an accepted 2026 ballot through Wednesday, Oct. 28, as a share of all usual early voters in each age group. The 2022 comparison group voted early in person in 2018 and 2020 and is measured on Wednesday, Nov. 2, 2022, six days before Election Day. Age is the election year minus birth year.
Source: Civic Forge Solutions analysis of Georgia Secretary of State ballot records, voter history and voter lists; Civic Forge Solutions 2026 Early Voting Dashboard
Part of the gain comes from age alone. This year’s Democratic-primary group is older, and older voters vote earlier. At the 2022 group’s age mix, the gain is 5.5 points instead of 7.2.
Republican Voters Still Out
Republican-primary voters who usually vote early are near their 2022 pace. Of 848,354 in the group, 272,013 have no accepted ballot recorded. That is 32.1%, against 30.8% for the 2022 comparison group at this point.
How far behind depends on the method. Sorted by 2022 primary labels, the share is 30.9%, nearly even with 2022. At the 2022 group’s age mix, it is 34.4%, a gap of 3.6 points.
Every Republican-primary age group is a little behind 2022. The gaps run from 1.4 points for voters 65 to 74 to 5.6 points for voters 35 to 49.
Most Republican-primary voters still out usually vote before this point. Of them, 193,134 voted by this point in both 2022 and 2024. Only 9,478 voted in the final two days of early voting both times.
Younger Voters and Primary Skippers Are the Most Likely Not to Have Voted
Younger voters in both parties are the most likely not to have voted. Among Republican-primary voters 18 to 34, 61.9% (25,925) have not voted. Among Democratic-primary voters of the same age, 36.5% have not.
Republican-primary voters who skipped this year’s May primary are more than twice as likely not to have voted. Of them, 48.7% have not voted, against 21.3% of those who voted in it.
Most Republican-primary voters still out are older, though. Voters 50 and older are 70.6% of them, 192,038 voters.
| Group | Republican-primary usual early voters | Not yet voted | Share | Democratic-primary usual early voters | Not yet voted | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All usual early voters | 848,354 | 272,013 | 32.1% | 823,636 | 180,906 | 22.0% |
| Age | ||||||
| Voters 18 to 34 | 41,859 | 25,925 | 61.9% | 79,907 | 29,165 | 36.5% |
| Voters 35 to 49 | 103,952 | 54,050 | 52.0% | 173,070 | 51,729 | 29.9% |
| Voters 50 to 64 | 259,501 | 90,594 | 34.9% | 272,194 | 53,262 | 19.6% |
| Voters 65 to 74 | 233,779 | 51,902 | 22.2% | 182,553 | 26,521 | 14.5% |
| Voters 75 and older | 209,263 | 49,542 | 23.7% | 115,912 | 20,229 | 17.5% |
| May 2026 primary | ||||||
| Voted in it | 515,159 | 109,786 | 21.3% | 612,457 | 92,617 | 15.1% |
| Skipped it | 333,195 | 162,227 | 48.7% | 211,179 | 88,289 | 41.8% |
| May primaries of 2024 and 2026 | ||||||
| Voted in both | 294,525 | 54,184 | 18.4% | 330,205 | 37,893 | 11.5% |
| Voted in one | 303,975 | 95,022 | 31.3% | 330,921 | 74,295 | 22.5% |
| Voted in neither | 249,854 | 122,807 | 49.2% | 162,510 | 68,718 | 42.3% |
Scroll horizontally to see the full table.
Not yet voted means no accepted 2026 ballot through Wednesday, Oct. 28. Each voter appears once in each block. Bars stop at 70%.
Where They Are
Cobb and Fulton have the most Republican-primary usual early voters still out. Cobb has 16,969 and Fulton has 16,185. Gwinnett, Cherokee and Forsyth follow.
Among the five counties with the most voters still out, Fulton stands out. Its share not yet voted is 4.2 points higher than in 2022. Cobb’s is 0.7 points higher, near normal.
The highest shares not yet voted are in smaller counties
Scroll horizontally to see the full chart.
Republican-primary voters who cast accepted early in-person ballots in both 2022 and 2024, by county on the Oct. 8, 2026 voter list, with no accepted 2026 ballot through Wednesday, Oct. 28. Small counties can swing on a few dozen voters.
Source: Civic Forge Solutions analysis of Georgia Secretary of State ballot records, voter history and voter lists; Civic Forge Solutions 2026 Early Voting Dashboard
| County | Republican-primary usual early voters | Not yet voted | Share not yet voted | 2022 group, same point | Change, points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most voters not yet voted | |||||
| Cobb | 57,549 | 16,969 | 29.5% | 28.8% | +0.7 |
| Fulton | 55,323 | 16,185 | 29.3% | 25.0% | +4.2 |
| Gwinnett | 45,551 | 13,720 | 30.1% | 30.9% | −0.7 |
| Cherokee | 37,730 | 10,961 | 29.1% | 29.8% | −0.7 |
| Forsyth | 34,691 | 10,804 | 31.1% | 28.6% | +2.6 |
| Highest shares not yet voted (counties with at least 1,000 such voters) | |||||
| Long | 1,057 | 461 | 43.6% | 33.2% | +10.4 |
| Dade | 1,698 | 713 | 42.0% | 38.1% | +3.9 |
| Whitfield | 5,870 | 2,433 | 41.4% | 40.4% | +1.0 |
| Tattnall | 2,185 | 900 | 41.2% | 35.9% | +5.3 |
| Haralson | 3,702 | 1,513 | 40.9% | 39.9% | +1.0 |
Scroll horizontally to see the full table.
The 2022 column is the 2022 comparison group’s share not voted by Wednesday, Nov. 2, 2022, by 2022 county. Positive changes mean further behind than in 2022. Bars stop at ±12 points.
Democratic-primary voters are ahead of their 2022 pace in all 50 counties with at least 1,500 such voters. Whitfield’s share not yet voted fell 16.3 points from 2022, and Clarke’s fell 15.9 points. Catoosa, Cherokee and Hall follow.
Clarke County’s comparison may overstate the change. In this college county, the 2022 comparison group may reflect student turnover.
| County | Democratic-primary usual early voters | Not yet voted | Share not yet voted | 2022 group, same point | Change, points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Furthest ahead of 2022 (counties with at least 1,500 such voters) | |||||
| Whitfield | 1,633 | 472 | 28.9% | 45.2% | −16.3 |
| Clarke | 11,172 | 2,695 | 24.1% | 40.0% | −15.9 |
| Catoosa | 1,752 | 362 | 20.7% | 34.2% | −13.5 |
| Cherokee | 11,553 | 2,452 | 21.2% | 34.0% | −12.8 |
| Hall | 6,435 | 1,387 | 21.6% | 34.1% | −12.5 |
| Most Democratic-primary usual early voters | |||||
| Fulton | 142,241 | 31,867 | 22.4% | 27.5% | −5.1 |
| DeKalb | 116,788 | 25,186 | 21.6% | 27.8% | −6.2 |
| Cobb | 71,775 | 15,169 | 21.1% | 32.4% | −11.3 |
| Gwinnett | 71,417 | 15,216 | 21.3% | 32.7% | −11.4 |
| Clayton | 35,221 | 7,134 | 20.3% | 24.5% | −4.2 |
Scroll horizontally to see the full table.
Negative changes mean further ahead than in 2022. Bars stop at ±12 points.
What the Final Days Could Change
Thursday and Friday could add about 438,000 early ballots, by the dashboard’s projection. Its range runs from about 334,000 to 630,000. Our earlier estimate for Thursday alone was about 199,000, with a range of 176,000 to 228,000.
Usual early voters still out would supply about 129,000 of those ballots at 2022 rates, by our 2022 trends estimate. That is about 29% of the projected two days. About 72,000 would be Republican-primary voters and 57,000 Democratic-primary voters.
At the faster 2024 rates, the two-day figures rise to about 110,000 Republican-primary and 76,000 Democratic-primary voters.
Usual early voters still out would add tens of thousands of in-person votes on Thursday, Friday and Election Day
Scroll horizontally to see the full chart.
Our 2022 trends estimate, and the same estimate with 2024 rates. Each party’s usual early voters still out are split by the shares of its comparison group, not voted by the matching Wednesday, that voted early on Thursday or Friday, voted later (Election Day, plus a few late mail returns), or had no general-election history credit. Estimates are rounded to the nearest thousand.
Source: Civic Forge Solutions analysis of Georgia Secretary of State ballot records, voter history and voter lists; Civic Forge Solutions 2026 Early Voting Dashboard
Election Day is far larger than this group. In 2022, 1,451,614 voters cast a ballot without an accepted early or mail ballot by the last Friday, nearly all on Election Day. Usual early voters still out would add about 215,000 at 2022 rates, about 15% of that volume.
Within this group, Republican-primary Election Day voters would outnumber Democratic-primary ones. The difference is about 76,000 at 2022 rates and about 34,000 at 2024 rates.
Everyone else is the largest and least measured part of Election Day. We hold the other 2022 Election Day voters at 2022’s level, plus or minus 10%. The early vote is running about 10% above 2022, and Election Day could fall if more voters moved early.
By our 2022 trends estimate, Republican-primary voters would cast about 527,000 to 677,000 Election Day ballots. Democratic-primary voters would cast about 289,000 to 351,000. Voters with no party primary would add about 485,000 to 593,000.
| Last party primary | 2022 Election Day voters | Usual early voters still out, 2022 / 2024 rates | Other 2022 Election Day voters | 2026 Election Day, our 2022 trends estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican-primary voters | 577,689 | about 146,000 / 92,000 | 482,872 | about 527,000 to 677,000 |
| Democratic-primary voters | 301,745 | about 69,000 / 58,000 | 256,592 | about 289,000 to 351,000 |
| Voters with no party primary | 572,180 | not measured | 538,838 | about 485,000 to 593,000 |
Scroll horizontally to see the full table.
Election Day voters had a 2022 general-election history credit and no accepted early or mail ballot through Friday, Nov. 4, 2022 (a few late mail returns count). Other voters are those outside the 2022 comparison groups, held at 2022’s level plus or minus 10%. Party is the last primary as of each election.
Party labels are not votes. Our Oct. 28 projection found that voters still to come would need to be about 5 points more Democratic than in 2022 for the governor’s race to reach an even split.
Keep in Mind
- The comparison groups are built from earlier elections. Many voters used mail ballots in the 2020 pandemic year, so some regular early voters are missing from the 2022 group.
- The 2020 ballot file records fewer early in-person ballots than voter history does, which leaves some more voters out of the 2022 group.
- The 2022 and 2024 ballot files are complete final records. The 2026 file is a fresh daily release and can still change.
- Of voters who voted early in person in both 2022 and 2024, 2.0% are no longer on the Oct. 8 voter list and are left out.
- A party primary ballot is not party registration. These are not vote-choice data.