Georgia’s early vote has more Democratic-primary voters than at this point in 2022. It also has fewer Republican-primary voters and more young voters. A new State Navigate poll confirms its Democratic lean.
Our extrapolation from 2022 has Jon Ossoff narrowly winning the Senate race and Keisha Lance Bottoms falling short for governor. It assumes each kind of voter votes the way similar voters did in 2022. However, both recent polls put Bottoms near 50% or above.
This update uses ballots through Tuesday, Oct. 27, and follows our Oct. 26 analysis. Our 2022 comparison now uses the state’s complete 2022 early-vote file and includes every county. For daily turnout by county, see the Georgia Early Voting Dashboard. Ballot records show who has voted, not how. No votes are counted until Election Day.
Who Has Voted Early
Georgia’s early voters lean more Democratic than 2022’s on every measure we use. More of them last voted in a Democratic primary, 951,666 against 765,266 at the same point in 2022. Fewer last voted in a Republican primary, 774,035 against 816,580. Our model puts 58.1% of the 2,128,276 early voters on the Democratic side of a two-way race. That is an estimated Democratic lead of about 337,000 votes.
Young voters are casting more early ballots than in 2022. Voters 18 to 34 have cast 281,829 early ballots, 29.1% more than at the same point in 2022.
Much of the change comes from voters new to party primaries. Voters with no Democratic or Republican primary through mid-2022 make up 30.5% of early voters, up from 18.9% at the same point in 2022. Based on their age, race, sex and county, we assume they lean Democratic, as described in our Oct. 25 analysis.
How to read this table: each row below is a group’s share of all early voters at the same number of days before Election Day, with the change in points.
Voters with no primary history make up a much larger share of early voters than in 2022
| Share of early voters | 2022, through Nov. 1 | 2026, through Oct. 27 | Change, points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Black voters | 30.3% | 32.5% | +2.2 |
| White voters | 58.5% | 53.2% | −5.3 |
| Hispanic voters | 1.8% | 3.3% | +1.5 |
| Asian American voters | 1.9% | 2.7% | +0.9 |
| Voters 65 and older | 39.0% | 41.0% | +2.0 |
| Voters under 45 | 21.5% | 23.4% | +2.0 |
| Women voters | 55.2% | 56.0% | +0.8 |
| Voters with no Democratic or Republican primary through mid-2022 | 18.9% | 30.5% | +11.6 |
| Voters who voted by mail | 9.6% | 4.6% | −4.9 |
- Voters with no Democratic or Republican primary through mid-2022 changed most: +11.6 points.
- The share of Black voters rose 2.2 points, and the share of White voters fell 5.3.
Source: Georgia Secretary of State ballot records, voter files and voter history; Civic Forge Solutions analysis.
Little Changed Since Oct. 26
Two more days of voting left that picture almost where it was. The estimated Democratic lead grew to about 337,000 votes because more people voted. Every measure and both races’ ranges moved by a tenth of a point or less.
How to read this table: the first column below is our Oct. 26 analysis, which used an earlier, incomplete copy of the state’s 2022 records. The second uses the complete 2022 file, so part of any change comes from that switch.
Two more days of voting barely moved our estimates
| Oct. 26 analysis, ballots through Oct. 25 | Now, ballots through Oct. 27 | |
|---|---|---|
| Early ballots in our estimate | 1,780,232 | 2,128,276 |
| Voter-profile measure, points more Democratic than 2022 | +3.4 | +3.3 |
| Demographic measure | +2.3 | +2.4 |
| Neighborhood measure | +1.2 | +1.2 |
| Early voters who would vote for the Democrat, two-party | 58.5% | 58.1% |
| Estimated Democratic lead among early voters | about 295,000 | about 337,000 |
| Senate, our extrapolation from 2022 | 51.3% to 53.9% | 51.3% to 53.8% |
| Governor, our extrapolation from 2022 | 47.0% to 49.6% | 47.0% to 49.5% |
Source: Georgia Secretary of State ballot records, voter files, voter history and 2022 certified results; Civic Forge Solutions analysis.
The 2022 Scenario and Recent Polling
Extrapolating from 2022, those early voters point to a narrow Ossoff win and a narrow Bottoms loss. Ossoff would do about 1 to 3 points better than Warnock did that year. Warnock won 50.5% of the two-party vote, with 1,946,117 votes. Bottoms stays under 50% across the whole range.
Both polls are more Democratic than our 2022 scenario, most clearly among voters who have not yet voted. State Navigate’s governor result for Bottoms, 51.5% among 679 respondents, is above the top of our 2022 scenario range. That range is 47.0% to 49.5%. Its respondents who have not yet voted give her 45.8%, well above the top of our estimate for voters still to come, 40.7%. AJC/UGA’s governor result, 49.2%, is near the top of that range. Its Senate result, 54.2% among 1,000 respondents, is a little above our Senate range. State Navigate’s 333 respondents who have already voted agree with our estimate, giving Bottoms 0.8 points less than we do. The table below shows how far each poll sits from our 2022 scenario in each race.
Our extrapolation from 2022 has Ossoff ahead and Bottoms short, while the polls run near 50% or above for Bottoms
Democratic share of the two-party vote. Bars reach the middle of each range, and whiskers mark its ends; each range covers our three measures of early voters and two cases for Election Day. Dots show poll results, with lines for our approximate 95% margin of error. A race tips toward a candidate when the middle of its range is above 50%. State Navigate did not ask about the Senate race. Ballots through Oct. 27.
| Scenario | Senate: Ossoff’s two-party share | Governor: Bottoms’s two-party share | Governor’s race leans toward |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our Extrapolation From 2022: model using real early-vote data | |||
| Our extrapolation from 2022 | 51.3% to 53.8% | 47.0% to 49.5% | Jackson |
| Election Day Scenarios: our what-if assumptions, not data | |||
| Voters still to come 5 points more Democratic | 53.0% to 55.6% | 48.8% to 51.3% | Bottoms |
| Voters still to come 5 points more Republican | 49.5% to 52.0% | 45.2% to 47.7% | Jackson |
| Poll Scenarios: published poll results | |||
| State Navigate, all respondents, Oct. 23 to 27 | Not asked | 47.5% to 55.6% | Bottoms |
| AJC/UGA, all respondents, Oct. 7 to 15 | 50.9% to 57.5% | 46.0% to 52.5% | Jackson |
| Our Combination of a Poll With Our Estimate | |||
| Our combination: our early-vote estimate with State Navigate’s not-yet-voted respondents, Oct. 23 to 27 | Not asked | 48.0% to 53.4% | Bottoms |
The combined row is our calculation, not a published poll result. It keeps our estimate for early voters and gives voters still to come the State Navigate result for respondents who have not voted.
Source: Georgia Secretary of State ballot records and 2022 certified results; State Navigate; AJC/UGA poll release; Civic Forge Solutions analysis.
What Could Change It: Election Day Scenarios
Voters still to come would need to be about 5 points more Democratic than in 2022 for Bottoms to reach an even split. These scenarios move only the voters still to come; early voters stay as in our extrapolation. A 5-point shift toward Democrats tips the governor’s race toward Bottoms, and the same shift toward Republicans makes the Senate race too close to call. The 2022 pattern itself could break: Warnock won 55.1% of the 2,481,435 two-party early votes. On Election Day he won 42.0%, a gap that shrank to 3.3 points in 2024.
Turnout sets how much Republicans need from voters still to come. In our extrapolation from 2022, they would need 58.7% of the two-party vote from the rest if 4,100,000 Georgians vote in all.
Republicans would need about three in five of the votes still to come
Share of the two-party vote Republicans would need from voters who have not yet voted to erase our estimated Democratic lead among early voters, for three turnout totals. Vote choice from our extrapolation from 2022.
| Election Day Scenario: Georgians voting in all | Republican share of the two-party vote needed from voters still to vote |
|---|---|
| 3,900,000 | 59.7% |
| 4,100,000 | 58.7% |
| 4,300,000 | 57.9% |
Source: Georgia Secretary of State ballot records; Civic Forge Solutions analysis.
What the Polls Say: Poll Scenarios
The polls lean toward that more Democratic shift. Both published polls sit near or above the top of our extrapolation from 2022 for governor. The AJC poll, taken before most early voting, leaves Bottoms short and Ossoff ahead.
State Navigate agrees with our estimate for people who have already voted. Its 333 respondents who have voted give Bottoms 57.3% of the two-party vote. Our estimate is 0.8 points higher, well inside that group’s margin of error.
The poll dissents on voters still to come, who lean Republican by less than our figures assume for Election Day. The gap between the poll’s two groups is larger than sampling error alone would produce. For attorney general it is 10.6 points, against a margin of error of about 8.1 points for the difference.
Poll respondents who have voted match our early-voter estimate in every race
Democratic share of the two-party vote in the State Navigate poll, by whether respondents say they have voted. Lines mark our approximate 95% margin of error. The green line is our estimate for everyone who had voted early through Oct. 27.
Source: State Navigate; Georgia Secretary of State ballot records; Civic Forge Solutions analysis.
What To Watch
Democrats’ estimated early lead of about 337,000 votes is about half the 637,000 early and mail ballots our dashboard projects are still to come. The governor’s race is close. Watch whether those ballots arrive before Election Day. Watch also whether voters still to come give Republicans the three in five votes they need.