Data in this article is as-of Wednesday, March 4th, 2026, reflecting ballots accepted through Tuesday, March 3rd. For full methodology, county-level analysis, and swing modeling, see our Day 13 article.
Interactive dashboard: GA-14 Data Dashboard
The Numbers
Through fifteen days of early voting, 46,523 ballots have been accepted in the GA-14 special election, or 12.5% of the 372,297 total votes cast in the 2024 GA-14 general. Three EV days remain through Friday, March 6.
The final week opened strong:
- Monday, Mar 2: 3,137 ballots
- Tuesday, Mar 3: 3,633 ballots (highest weekday total since Day 5)
The two-day total of 6,770 outpaced every two-day weekday stretch in Week 2. Tuesday’s 3,633 was the highest single weekday since Feb 20 (4,720).
What Changed
Partisan composition held steady: Republican 57.1% (was 56.5%), Democrat 29.9% (was 30.6%), no history 11.6% (no history means that we do not have prior partisan history for the respective voter). These are small movements within the range we have observed throughout the period.
County convergence: The gap between over- and under-indexing counties narrowed. Paulding closed from -2.2 to -0.8 and Walker from -2.2 to -1.1. Whitfield (-2.8) remains the biggest under-indexer.
Simulated margin: We simulate an estimated margin of victory in a two-person matchup between a Democrat (D) and Republican (R). Our simulation currently predicts R+27.9 (was R+27.7), essentially unchanged.
Forecast
At the current Week 3 pace, we project approximately 56,000 to 60,000 total early ballots by the close of early voting on Friday, March 6. Georgia elections typically see their highest single-day early voting totals on the final Friday.
Election Day is Tuesday, March 10.
Questions? Get in touch at [email protected].
Civic Forge Solutions provides civic technology and data analysis services for progressive and Democratic candidates, campaigns, and committees. Based in Atlanta, Georgia.