Findings
- Democrats likely lead by about 300,000 votes among the 2.83 million Georgians who have already voted. The lead could be as small as 250,000 or as large as 500,000.
- To erase that lead and tie the final count in the U.S. Senate race between Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff and Republican Mike Collins, Republicans need about 63% of Tuesday's Election Day votes for Democrats and Republicans if 1.21 million Georgians vote that day, and about 68% if 866,000 do.
- That is slightly more than Brian Kemp won on Election Day in 2022, 62.6%, and well above Herschel Walker's 57.9%.
- The lead comes from early voters with no recent primary history. Compared with 2024's early voters with no recent primary history, they are more likely to be Black, Hispanic or Asian and less likely to be White.
- If each group of voters leans the way it did in 2024, Republicans would win about 60% of Tuesday's votes, not enough. Democrats would finish about 75,000 votes ahead in the final count of early and Election Day votes. Republicans would finish ahead only if voters cross over to them as they did for Kemp. If about 1.63 million Georgians vote on Election Day, the final count would be about even.
- Down-ballot races could break toward Republicans. If voters split their tickets as they did in 2022, Republicans would finish ahead in five of eight other 2022 statewide patterns, including those for governor and secretary of state.
Democrats likely lead by about 300,000 votes among the 2.83 million Georgians who have already voted.
To tie the final count in the Senate race, Republican Mike Collins needs about 63% of Tuesday's Election Day votes for Democrats and Republicans. That is slightly more than Brian Kemp's 62.6% of Election Day votes in 2022, a year he won the governor's race by about 7.5 points overall. If each group of voters leans the way it did in 2024, Republicans would win about 60% of Tuesday's votes and still trail in the final count.
These are estimates built from public voting records, not predictions. No votes are counted until the polls close.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that Republican strategists are modeling what Election Day must look like to keep the statewide races "within reach." The AJC put early voting up 13% from 2022. Our count is up 12.5%, which rounds to the same figure.
Who Is Left to Vote
About 5.4 million registered Georgians have not voted. We expect about 1.21 million of them to vote on Tuesday, and it could be as few as 866,000.
Election Day Could Add 866,000 to 1.63 Million Votes
Our middle estimate is still fewer Election Day voters than either of the last two Novembers. In 2022, 1,448,210 Georgians voted after this point, counting Election Day and late mail ballots. In 2024, 1,243,356 voted on Election Day.
Turnout could be lower because so many people have already voted. Early ballots are up 12.5% from 2022. Of the 1.37 million people who voted on Election Day in 2022 and are still on the voter list, 435,408 have already voted this year. If enough Election Day voters moved to early voting, Tuesday could bring about 866,000 voters. Total turnout would then be 3.69 million, below 2022's 3.96 million.
Tuesday's voters are expected to look different from early voters. White voters would cast 61.4% of Election Day votes, compared with 52.5% of ballots so far. Black voters would cast 23.4%, compared with 32.4%.
Ballots Cast So Far and Votes Expected on Election Day
Voters who chose a Republican primary ballot since 2020 would cast 33.8% of Election Day votes, up from 30.5% of ballots so far. Democratic primary voters would cast 16.5%, down from 33.6%. Half of Tuesday's voters have no recent primary history.
Fulton, DeKalb, Cobb, Clayton and Gwinnett counties cast 39.8% of ballots so far but would cast 29.7% of Election Day votes. Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb and DeKalb still hold the most Election Day voters.
Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb and DeKalb Hold the Most Expected Election Day Votes
Who Has Already Voted
The early vote leans more Democratic than it did at this point in 2022. White voters cast 52.5% of ballots so far, down from 57.4%. Black voters cast 32.4%, up from 29.2%.
White Voters’ Share of Ballots Fell About 5 Points; Black Voters’ Share Rose About 3
The share of ballots from White men voters fell 2.5 points, and the share from White women voters fell 2.4 points. Black women voters gained the most, 2.2 points.
Younger voters and Democratic primary voters also cast a bigger share of ballots. Voters 18 to 34 cast 16.0% of ballots, up from 13.6%. Counting each voter's full primary record, Democratic primary voters cast 41.9%, up from 37.5%, while Republican primary voters fell to 35.2% from 40.1%. Infrequent voters cast 14.2%, up from 11.8%.
Younger Voters and Democratic Primary Voters Cast a Bigger Share of Ballots Than in 2022
Early voters with no recent primary history drive the Democratic lead. About 1.01 million of them have voted, 35.9% of all ballots. Black voters cast 32.9% of their ballots, up from 24.3% among 2024's early voters with no recent primary history. White voters cast 43.9%, down from 54.7%. Hispanic voters cast 7.1%, up from 5.1%, and Asian voters 5.3%, up from 4.6%.
What Republicans Need to Catch Up
The fewer people vote on Tuesday, the bigger the Republican share of Tuesday's votes must be to tie the final count. Republicans need 62.8% at our middle estimate and 67.9% at lower turnout. If Election Day matches 2024's 1.24 million voters, they need 62.5%.
Republicans Need About 63% to 68% of Election Day Votes to Catch Up
No recent Republican has cleared that bar on Election Day. Brian Kemp came closest, with 62.6% of Election Day votes for Democrats and Republicans in 2022. Herschel Walker won 57.9% of Election Day votes but lost the race. Donald Trump won 53.6% of Election Day votes in 2024.
Tuesday's voters are expected to look more like 2022's Election Day voters than 2024's. In 2022, among Georgians who voted after this point, Republican primary voters outnumbered Democratic primary voters, about 475,000 to 287,000. That helps Republicans, but not enough on its own.
If each group of voters leans the way it did in 2024, Republicans would win about 60% of Tuesday's votes. That would not be enough. At our middle estimate, Democrats would finish about 75,000 votes ahead in the final count. If about 1.63 million Georgians vote on Election Day, giving it the same share of all votes as in 2022, the final count would be about even.
When Voters Cross Party Lines
On the same November 2022 ballot, Raphael Warnock won 50.5% of votes for Democrats and Republicans, and Stacey Abrams won 46.2%. Walker lost to Warnock in a December runoff.
President Donald Trump is unpopular in Georgia. An Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll of 1,000 likely Georgia voters, taken Oct. 7-15, found 55% disapprove of Trump's job performance and 42% approve. In 2022, a Marist poll of Georgia adults, taken Oct. 31 to Nov. 2, found 56% disapproved of President Joe Biden and 38% approved, slightly worse than Trump's rating now. Our estimates rest on 2022 and 2024, when a Democrat held the White House, so they may miss voters turning away from Republicans this year.
How Much Republicans Need Depends on How Many Voters Cross Party Lines
If voters cross over to Republicans as they did for Kemp, Republicans would need 61.1% of Tuesday's votes and would win about 62%, enough to finish about 22,000 votes ahead in the final count. If voters cross over to Democrats as they did for Warnock, Democrats would finish more than 300,000 ahead.
Down-Ballot Races
Races lower on the ballot could break differently from the Senate race. In 2022, Republicans ran stronger down the ballot than Herschel Walker did. Their candidates for secretary of state, agriculture commissioner, insurance commissioner and school superintendent each won about 63% of Election Day votes for Democrats and Republicans, compared with Walker's 57.9%.
If voters split their tickets this year the way they did in each 2022 statewide race, Republicans would finish ahead in the final count in five of those eight patterns. Democrats would finish ahead in three, one of them narrowly.
This table is not a prediction for any contest. Each row asks one what-if question: what if this year's voters split their tickets exactly the way voters did in one 2022 race? The 2022 races had different candidates, and several had popular incumbents. This year's results in these races will depend on this year's candidates.
| Voters split as in the 2022 race for | Republican share of 2022 Election Day votes | 2026 final count at our middle estimate | This year's candidates (D vs. R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Secretary of state | 62.9% | Republicans by about 124,000 | Penny Brown Reynolds vs. Tim Fleming (open seat) |
| School superintendent | 62.6% | Republicans by about 59,000 | Lydia Powell vs. Richard Woods (incumbent) |
| Agriculture commissioner | 62.8% | Republicans by about 50,000 | Katherine Juhan-Arnold vs. Tyler Harper (incumbent) |
| Insurance commissioner | 62.8% | Republicans by about 48,000 | Keisha Sean Waites vs. John King (incumbent) |
| Governor | 62.6% | Republicans by about 25,000 | Keisha Lance Bottoms vs. Rick Jackson (open seat) |
| Labor commissioner | 62.4% | Democrats by about 13,000 | Nikki Porcher vs. Bárbara Rivera Holmes (incumbent) |
| Attorney general | 61.3% | Democrats by about 73,000 | Tanya Miller vs. Brian Strickland (open seat) |
| Lieutenant governor | 61.5% | Democrats by about 90,000 | Josh McLaurin vs. Greg Dolezal (open seat) |
Several 2022 Republican winners ran as incumbents, including Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. This year's races for secretary of state, governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general have no incumbent. The Senate race in 2022, when voters crossed over to Warnock, would leave Democrats more than 300,000 votes ahead.
About This Analysis
This analysis uses the Georgia Secretary of State ballot file through Nov. 1, 2026, the complete 2022 ballot file, state voter history and voter lists, and certified 2022 and 2024 results. Group shares match our Georgia 2026 general election turnout data.
Sources: Georgia Secretary of State and Civic Forge Solutions