Georgia is on pace to pass 2022’s early-vote total on Friday

by Civic Forge Solutions

Georgia needs 579,279 more early ballots to pass 2022’s final early-vote count of 2,534,136, and Monday alone brought 172,971, 16.0% more than the matching Monday of 2022. At the dashboard’s projected pace, Georgia passes 2022’s total on Friday, Oct. 30, the last day of early voting.

1 The Metro Atlanta Core counties are Fulton, DeKalb, Cobb, Clayton and Gwinnett, part of the 29-county Atlanta metropolitan area as defined by the Census Bureau’s July 2023 delineation. The rest of Georgia is the other 154 counties. Back to text

Georgia has accepted 1,954,857 early ballots through Monday, Oct. 26: 1,863,649 cast in person, 87,033 by mail and 4,175 electronically. That is 174,626 more than the total we reported a day earlier, and 137,433 (7.6%) more than the 1,817,424 at the same number of days before Election Day in 2022. Early voting ends Friday, Oct. 30.

Where the Total Could End

The dashboard projects about 2.73 million early ballots in all, with an 80% range of 2.58 million to 3.11 million; even the low end is 46,469 above 2022’s 2,534,136. If the last days follow 2024’s pattern, Georgia ends near 2.57 million; 2020’s, near 2.60 million; 2022’s, near 2.73 million; and 2018’s, near 3.06 million. If Georgia simply matches 2022’s remaining ballots one for one, it ends near 2.67 million.

2018 is the outlier. By this point in 2018, Georgia had cast 64.0% of that year’s early vote, against 75.9% in 2024, 75.3% in 2020 and 71.7% in 2022, so a 2018-style finish adds far more ballots than the others.

Every past year’s pattern for the last days puts Georgia above 2022’s total, from 2.57 million to 3.06 million

Where Georgia’s early-vote total could endBar chart of where Georgia’s early-vote total could end. Dashboard projection: 2,725,767, 80% range 2,580,605 to 3,105,625; If the last days follow 2024: 2,574,164; If the last days follow 2020: 2,595,633; 2022’s last days, ballot for ballot: 2,671,569; If the last days follow 2022: 2,725,767; If the last days follow 2018: 3,056,610. 2022’s final total was 2,534,136; Georgia had accepted 1,954,857 through Oct. 26, 2026.Accepted early ballots at the end of early voting. Bars start at the 1,954,857 accepted through Oct. 26.2.0M2.5M3.0M2022 total 2,534,136Dashboard projection2.73M (2.58M to 3.11M)If the last days follow 20242.57MIf the last days follow 20202.60M2022’s last days, ballot for ballot2.67MIf the last days follow 20222.73MIf the last days follow 20183.06M

Scroll horizontally to see the full chart.

The whisker on the dashboard projection is its 80% range. Each “follow” scenario scales Georgia’s total through Oct. 26 by how much that year’s early vote grew from the same number of days before Election Day to its final count. The ballot-for-ballot scenario adds 2022’s accepted ballots from Oct. 31 to Nov. 8, 2022 to Georgia’s total. Final totals include mail ballots accepted through Election Day.

Source: Civic Forge Solutions 2026 Early Voting Dashboard

How to read this table: each row is a scenario for the rest of early voting, with what it assumes, the final total it implies and the day it passes 2022’s total. What to notice: the lowest scenario, 2024’s pattern, still ends 40,028 above 2022; the projection and three scenarios pass 2022 on Friday, the 2018 pattern gets there Thursday, and the 2020 pattern only after early voting ends.

ScenarioWhat it assumesShare of that year’s total cast by nowFinal early ballotsAbove 2022’s total byPasses 2022’s total on
Dashboard projection80% range 2.58 million to 3.11 million–2,725,767191,631Fri., Oct. 30
If the last days follow 2024The smallest late surge of the four years75.9%2,574,16440,028Fri., Oct. 30
If the last days follow 2020A pandemic year with heavy mail voting75.3%2,595,63361,497Sat., Oct. 31 (after early voting)
2022’s last days, ballot for ballot2022’s remaining ballots, added one for one–2,671,569137,433Fri., Oct. 30
If the last days follow 2022The last midterm; the dashboard’s middle value71.7%2,725,767191,631Fri., Oct. 30
If the last days follow 2018The largest late surge of the four years64.0%3,056,610522,474Thu., Oct. 29

Scroll horizontally to see the full table.

“By this point” is the same number of days before Election Day as Monday, Oct. 26, 2026 (Oct. 31, 2022; Oct. 28, 2024; Oct. 26, 2020; Oct. 29, 2018). The dashboard projection takes the middle of the four “follow” results, counting 2022 and 2018 twice, and its range comes from how far the same method missed in each past year. 2022’s total of 2,534,136 includes 26,200 mail ballots accepted after the last day of early voting.

When It Passes 2022

The dashboard’s projected path crosses 2022’s total on Friday, Oct. 30, at about 2.68 million, after reaching 2.44 million on Thursday. The high end of its range crosses on Thursday, Oct. 29 (2.67 million); the low end crosses on Friday, with 10,816 to spare. A 2020-style finish would leave Georgia 15,045 short at the close of early voting on Friday and pass 2022 only as mail ballots arrive after early voting ends.

Passing 2022 by Thursday would take 579,279 ballots from Tuesday to Thursday, 29.2% more than the 448,212 accepted on the matching three days of 2022. At Monday’s pace over 2022, those three days would bring about 519,900. Friday was the busiest day of 2022’s last week, with 242,300 ballots.

The projection’s path passes 2022’s total on Friday, Oct. 30; its high end gets there Thursday

When Georgia’s running total passes 2022’sBar chart of Georgia’s running total of accepted early ballots: 1,954,857 through Monday, Oct. 26, then the dashboard’s projected total for each remaining weekday with its 80% range: Oct. 27 2,099,511 (2,072,273 to 2,170,787), 2022 ballot for ballot 2,089,341; Oct. 28 2,255,752 (2,199,094 to 2,404,015), 2022 ballot for ballot 2,234,598; Oct. 29 2,436,963 (2,346,183 to 2,674,516), 2022 ballot for ballot 2,403,069; Oct. 30 2,681,843 (2,544,952 to 3,040,058), 2022 ballot for ballot 2,645,369. 2022’s final total was 2,534,136.Running total: actual (Oct. 26), then projection with 80% range; ◆ 2022’s last days, one for one01M2M3M2022 total 2,534,1361.95MMon., Oct. 262.10MTue., Oct. 272.26MWed., Oct. 282.44MThu., Oct. 292.68MFri., Oct. 30

Scroll horizontally to see the full chart.

Bars after Monday are the dashboard’s projected running total for each day, with whiskers for its 80% range. Diamonds add 2022’s accepted ballots on the matching days (Nov. 1 to 4, 2022) to Georgia’s total through Oct. 26, 2026. 2022’s total includes mail ballots accepted through Election Day, Nov. 8, 2022.

Source: Civic Forge Solutions 2026 Early Voting Dashboard

Monday Ran 16.0% Ahead of 2022

Georgia accepted 172,971 early ballots on Monday, Oct. 26, against 149,129 on the matching Monday of 2022, Oct. 31. Among last week’s weekdays, only Tuesday, Oct. 20 ran further ahead of 2022 (+16.6%); the others ran 7.8% to 10.2% ahead. First-week weekdays ran 20.8% to 34.1% ahead, partly because early voting began Oct. 13, 2026, 21 days before Election Day, and Oct. 17, 2022, 22 days before, so the first week of 2026 is set against busier days of 2022.

Monday ran 16.0% ahead of the matching 2022 Monday, above every weekday last week except Tuesday, Oct. 20

Weekday change from 2022, GeorgiaBar chart of the percentage change in Georgia’s accepted early ballots on each weekday from the matching day of 2022: Oct. 13 +34.1%; Oct. 14 +23.3%; Oct. 15 +24.0%; Oct. 16 +20.8%; Oct. 19 +7.9%; Oct. 20 +16.6%; Oct. 21 +7.8%; Oct. 22 +9.5%; Oct. 23 +10.2%; Oct. 26 +16.0%.Change in each weekday’s accepted early ballots from the matching day of 2022, Georgia0+10%+20%+30%+40%+34.1%TueOct. 13+23.3%WedOct. 14+24.0%ThuOct. 15+20.8%FriOct. 16+7.9%*MonOct. 19+16.6%*TueOct. 20+7.8%*WedOct. 21+9.5%*ThuOct. 22+10.2%*FriOct. 23+16.0%*MonOct. 26

Scroll horizontally to see the full chart.

Accepted early ballots, all methods, on each weekday of early voting against the day with the same number of days until Election Day in 2022. Early voting began Oct. 13, 2026, 21 days before Election Day, and Oct. 17, 2022, 22 days before, so each first-week day of 2026 is set against a later, busier day of 2022’s first week. 2022 counts from Oct. 24 to Nov. 1, 2022 (Oct. 19 to 27 on this page’s 2026-equivalent dates, marked *) include estimated Gwinnett ballots, which affect the Metro Atlanta Core and statewide comparisons.

Source: Civic Forge Solutions 2026 Early Voting Dashboard

Outside the Metro Atlanta Core, Monday Brought the Biggest Weekday Gain Since the First Week

The 154 counties outside the core accepted 108,105 ballots on Monday, 14.5% more than the 94,415 on the matching 2022 Monday. Last week, their weekday gains over 2022 ran 2.9% to 11.9%, including +6.7% on Monday, Oct. 19 and +6.2% on Friday, Oct. 23.

The core still grew faster on Monday, 18.6%, with 64,866 ballots against 54,714. The core cast 37.5% of Monday’s ballots statewide.

How to read this table: each row is a weekday, with ballots outside and inside the core and the change from the matching 2022 day. What to notice: outside the core, Monday’s +14.5% is the only weekday in the table above +12%; the core’s gain was larger every day.

DayRest of Georgia, 2026Matching 2022 dayChangeMetro Atlanta Core, 2026Matching 2022 dayChangeGeorgia, change
Mon., Oct. 19103,37496,870+6.7%62,98757,290*+9.9%+7.9%
Tue., Oct. 2097,07086,748+11.9%62,12449,816*+24.7%+16.6%
Wed., Oct. 2187,58485,143+2.9%55,88647,922*+16.6%+7.8%
Thu., Oct. 2284,37779,185+6.6%52,36345,708*+14.6%+9.5%
Fri., Oct. 23101,93496,007+6.2%63,64054,229*+17.4%+10.2%
Mon., Oct. 26108,10594,415+14.5%64,86654,714*+18.6%+16.0%

Scroll horizontally to see the full table.

Accepted early ballots, all methods. The Metro Atlanta Core is Fulton, DeKalb, Cobb, Clayton and Gwinnett; the rest of Georgia is the other 154 counties. 2022 counts from Oct. 24 to Nov. 1, 2022 (Oct. 19 to 27 on this page’s 2026-equivalent dates, marked *) include estimated Gwinnett ballots, which affect the Metro Atlanta Core and statewide comparisons.

Who Voted on Monday: Voters 18 to 34 Ran Further Ahead of 2022 Than on Any Weekday Yet

Voters 18 to 34 cast 28,841 ballots on Monday, 16.7% of the day’s total, against 14.5% on the matching 2022 Monday. The gap of 2.13 points is the widest on any weekday so far, above 1.98 points on Thursday, Oct. 22. Their ballots ran 33.0% ahead of 2022, against 16.0% for all ballots. Ballots from young women voters rose 45.1% and from young men voters 17.2%.

Through Oct. 26, voters 18 to 34 have cast 12.9% of Georgia’s early ballots, against 10.9% at the same point of 2022, and 26.4% more ballots, up from 25.5% a day earlier. Sunday, Oct. 25 remains their highest share of any day, now 28.98% after late records, revised from the 29.10% we reported.

  • Black women voters’ Monday ballots ran 46.0% ahead of 2022, mostly because 2022’s matching day was low. Their 2022 count fell 14.8% from the Monday before; this year’s rose 1.7%, and their share of the day slipped to 19.6% from 20.0% on Oct. 19. Through Oct. 26 their ballots are 19.6% above 2022.
  • White women voters’ ballots turned up 6.1% over 2022 on Monday, their best weekday since the first week, after a 10.7% drop on Sunday; through Oct. 26 they are still 0.6% below 2022.
  • Hispanic and Asian voters are running well ahead of 2022, faster than their growth on the voter rolls. Ballots from Hispanic voters are 110.0% above 2022 through Oct. 26 and from Asian voters 65.7%, while registered Hispanic voters rose 41.0% and Asian voters 28.6%. Early turnout among registered Hispanic voters is 14.8%, against 9.9% at the same point of 2022, and among Asian voters 19.3%, against 14.9%. Monday’s gains, 131.5% and 81.1%, were each group’s largest on a weekday since the first day of early voting. Together they cast 6.9% of Monday’s ballots.

How to read this table: each row is a group of voters, with its Monday ballots, its share of Monday’s ballots against the matching 2022 Monday, and the same comparison for all ballots through Oct. 26. What to notice: ballots from voters 18 to 34 grew about twice as fast as all ballots on Monday, from young women voters far faster than from young men voters; ballots from Hispanic and Asian voters are growing fastest of all, from small bases.

GroupMonday, Oct. 26Share of MondayShare of matching 2022 MondayChange from 2022Share through Oct. 26Share at same point of 2022Change from 2022
All voters172,971100.0%100.0%*+16.0%100.0%100.0%*+7.6%
Voters 18 to 3428,84116.7%14.5%*+33.0%12.9%10.9%*+26.4%
Women voters 18 to 3417,45110.1%8.1%*+45.1%7.5%6.0%*+33.1%
Men voters 18 to 3411,2086.5%6.4%*+17.2%5.3%4.8%*+17.3%
Black women voters33,84919.6%15.5%*+46.0%20.3%18.3%*+19.6%
White women voters49,25728.5%31.1%*+6.1%27.7%29.9%*−0.6%
Hispanic voters6,5853.8%1.9%*+131.5%3.3%1.7%*+110.0%
Asian voters5,3903.1%2.0%*+81.1%2.7%1.8%*+65.7%

Scroll horizontally to see the full table.

Accepted early ballots, all methods; age, race and sex as recorded on the voter file. Hispanic and Asian voters are small groups, so their shares move by fractions of a point. 2022 counts from Oct. 24 to Nov. 1, 2022 (Oct. 19 to 27 on this page’s 2026-equivalent dates, marked *) include estimated Gwinnett ballots, which affect the Metro Atlanta Core and statewide comparisons.

How Our Monday Forecast Did

Georgia’s 172,971 Monday ballots landed inside our range of 152,686 to 185,582, 7,049 above our central estimate of 165,922. The core’s 64,866 fell inside its range of 57,133 to 71,640, and the rest of Georgia’s 108,105 inside its range of 92,240 to 118,565.

AreaMatching 2022 Monday (Oct. 31)Our range, published Oct. 26Central estimateAccepted Monday, Oct. 26Against the central estimateResult
Metro Atlanta Core54,714*57,133 to 71,64063,72264,866+1,144Inside the range
Rest of Georgia94,41592,240 to 118,565102,194108,105+5,911Inside the range
Georgia149,129*152,686 to 185,582165,922172,971+7,049Inside the range

Scroll horizontally to see the full table.

Accepted early ballots, all methods, as of the file of Oct. 27. 2022 counts from Oct. 24 to Nov. 1, 2022 (Oct. 19 to 27 on this page’s 2026-equivalent dates, marked *) include estimated Gwinnett ballots, which affect the Metro Atlanta Core and statewide comparisons.

We Expect 137,800 to 168,000 Ballots on Tuesday

Our range for Tuesday, Oct. 27 is 137,750 to 168,043 accepted ballots, with a central estimate of 151,929, against 134,484 on the matching Tuesday of 2022, Nov. 1. For the core we expect 54,121 to 65,116 and for the rest of Georgia 82,826 to 106,922. Applied to each non-Sunday voting day from Oct. 20 to 26, the same rule would have caught Georgia’s count 6 times out of 6, the core’s 6 and the rest of Georgia’s 5.

AreaMatching 2022 Tuesday (Nov. 1)Our range, Tue., Oct. 27Central estimateDays the same rule would have caught, Oct. 20 to 26
Metro Atlanta Core49,729*54,121 to 65,11658,8096 of 6
Rest of Georgia84,75582,826 to 106,92293,1575 of 6
Georgia134,484*137,750 to 168,043151,9296 of 6

Scroll horizontally to see the full table.

Accepted early ballots, all methods. Each range is the matching 2022 Tuesday’s ballots times the lowest and the highest ratio of 2026 to 2022 daily ballots over the previous six non-Sunday voting days (Oct. 20 to 24 and Oct. 26), with the low end lowered and the high end raised by 5%; the central estimate uses the combined ratio over those six days. 2022 counts from Oct. 24 to Nov. 1, 2022 (Oct. 19 to 27 on this page’s 2026-equivalent dates, marked *) include estimated Gwinnett ballots, which affect the Metro Atlanta Core and statewide comparisons. Without Gwinnett, the other four core counties’ range is 40,833 to 51,022.