Georgia accepted 28,343 early ballots on Sunday, 264 below the low end of our range, and the whole miss was outside the Metro Atlanta Core.1 Inside the core, Democratic-primary and Black voters’ ballots grew faster than the core’s. The 45,077 extra early ballots from voters 18 to 34 could matter in a race as close as the 2022 U.S. Senate contest only if they lean heavily to one side.
1 The Metro Atlanta Core counties are Fulton, DeKalb, Cobb, Clayton and Gwinnett, part of the 29-county Atlanta metropolitan area as defined by the Census Bureau’s July 2023 delineation. The rest of Georgia is the other 154 counties. Back to text
Explore daily counts by county and voter group on the Georgia Early Voting Dashboard.
Sunday came in 264 ballots below the low end of our range, and the whole miss was outside the core
Georgia accepted 28,343 ballots on Sunday, Oct. 25, against our range of 28,600 to 35,800. The five core counties cast 23,255, inside their range of 22,000 to 26,500. The other 154 counties cast 5,088, 1,616 short of their low end of 6,700 and 22.0% below the matching Sunday of 2022.
Outside the Metro ATL Core, ballots ran 19.6% above 2022 on Saturday and 22.0% below on Sunday, while the core grew 16.8% and 16.1%
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Percentage change in each day’s accepted ballots from the matching day of 2022, Oct. 13 to 25, 2026. The rest of Georgia is the other 154 counties. Cobb held no Sunday voting on Oct. 23, 2022, so the core’s Sunday, Oct. 18 comparison sets five counties’ 2026 ballots against four counties’ 2022 ballots. Sunday ballots are few and depend on which counties open: 28,343 statewide on Oct. 25, 5,088 of them outside the core. 2022 counts from Oct. 24, 2022 (Oct. 19 on this page’s 2026-equivalent dates) include estimated Gwinnett ballots, which affect the Gwinnett, Metro ATL Core and statewide comparisons.
Outside the core, Henry, Forsyth, Newton and Clarke, which cast 2,712 in-person ballots on the matching 2022 Sunday, stayed closed this Sunday, and Cherokee, Fayette, Floyd and Screven opened instead, with 1,725. That nets about 1,000 fewer in-person ballots, against a drop of 1,431 from 2022 and a shortfall of 1,616 below our range, which assumed county hours like 2022’s. Across Saturday and Sunday together, ballots outside the core ran 15.6% above the matching 2022 weekend and the core’s ran 16.6% above.
Four counties outside the Metro ATL Core that voted on the matching 2022 Sunday stayed closed this Sunday, and four others opened instead
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In-person ballots accepted on Sunday, Oct. 25, 2026 and on the matching Sunday, Oct. 30, 2022, for every county outside the Metro ATL Core that accepted at least 50 on either day. Henry, Forsyth and Newton held their Sunday voting on Oct. 18 this year; Clarke voted on both Sundays in 2022 and only on Oct. 18 this year.
How to read this table: each row is an area, with its ballots on the matching 2022 Sunday, the range we published on Day 12, Sunday’s actual ballots and the change from 2022. What to notice: the core landed inside its range; the rest of Georgia fell 1,616 short of its low end and 22.0% below 2022.
| Area | Sun., Oct. 30, 2022 | Our forecast, Sun., Oct. 25, 2026 | Actual, Sun., Oct. 25, 2026 | Change from 2022 | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 26,544 | 28,607 to 35,831 | 28,343 | +6.8% | Below the range |
| Metro ATL Core | 20,025 | 22,011 to 26,525 | 23,255 | +16.1% | Inside the range |
| Rest of Georgia | 6,519 | 6,704 to 9,407 | 5,088 | −22.0% | Below the range |
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Accepted ballots on Sunday, all methods. The 2022 column is the matching day. 2022 counts from Oct. 24, 2022 (Oct. 19 on this page’s 2026-equivalent dates) include estimated Gwinnett ballots, which affect the Gwinnett, Metro ATL Core and statewide comparisons.
Inside the core, Democratic-primary and Black voters’ ballots grew faster than the core’s
On Sunday, Democratic-primary ballots in the five core counties were 19.3% above the matching 2022 Sunday and Black voters’ ballots 28.9% above, against 16.1% for all core ballots. Democratic-primary voters cast 50.9% of the core’s Sunday ballots, against 49.6% in 2022, and Black voters 37.2%, against 33.5%.
Through Oct. 25, the core’s Democratic-primary ballots are 22.4% above the same point of 2022 and Black voters’ ballots 17.8% above, against 10.8% for all core ballots.
Inside the Metro ATL Core, Black and Democratic-primary voters’ ballots grew faster than all core ballots, on Sunday (+28.9% and +19.3% against +16.1%) and through Oct. 25
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Percentage change in accepted early ballots in Fulton, DeKalb, Cobb, Clayton and Gwinnett, on Sunday, Oct. 25, 2026 against Sunday, Oct. 30, 2022, and through Oct. 25 against the same point of 2022. Latest primary is the primary ballot a voter last cast in Georgia, not a general-election vote. 2022 counts from Oct. 24, 2022 (Oct. 19 on this page’s 2026-equivalent dates) include estimated Gwinnett ballots, which affect the Gwinnett, Metro ATL Core and statewide comparisons.
Statewide, Democratic-primary voters’ share of Sunday’s ballots was the closest to 2022 of any day (50.1% against 49.9%). Outside the core, where the four counties stayed closed, their Sunday ballots fell 28.6%, to 2,368 from 3,315. Latest primary is the primary ballot a voter last cast, not a general-election vote.
How to read this table: each row is a group of voters in the five core counties, with its Sunday ballots, its share of the core’s Sunday ballots in 2026 and 2022, and the change from the matching 2022 Sunday on each of the two Sundays. What to notice: Democratic-primary (+19.3%) and Black (+28.9%) ballots grew faster than the core’s +16.1% on Oct. 25, while Republican-primary and White voters’ ballots fell.
| Group | Ballots, Sun., Oct. 25 | Share, Oct. 25 | Share, matching 2022 Sunday | Change from 2022, Oct. 25 | Change from 2022, Sun., Oct. 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latest party primary | |||||
| Democratic primary | 11,835 | 50.9% | 49.6% | +19.3% | +43.3% |
| Republican primary | 3,534 | 15.2% | 18.1% | −2.6% | −3.1% |
| No primary record | 7,586 | 32.6% | 30.9% | +22.8% | +35.9% |
| Race | |||||
| Black | 8,656 | 37.2% | 33.5% | +28.9% | +35.0% |
| White | 8,367 | 36.0% | 44.6% | −6.4% | +18.6% |
| Hispanic | 1,534 | 6.6% | 3.5% | +117.9% | +150.2% |
| Asian | 2,006 | 8.6% | 5.6% | +78.6% | +117.9% |
| Age | |||||
| Age 18 to 34 | 7,033 | 30.2% | 23.2% | +51.5% | +42.5% |
| Age 35 to 54 | 8,076 | 34.7% | 39.3% | +2.5% | +23.5% |
| Age 55 to 64 | 4,873 | 21.0% | 21.9% | +11.4% | +22.2% |
| Age 65 and older | 3,191 | 13.7% | 15.6% | +2.0% | +51.9% |
| All ballots in the core | 23,255 | 100% | 100% | +16.1% | +32.5% |
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Accepted ballots in Fulton, DeKalb, Cobb, Clayton and Gwinnett on Sunday, Oct. 25, 2026 against Sunday, Oct. 30, 2022, and on Sunday, Oct. 18 against Sunday, Oct. 23, 2022. Shares are of all ballots cast in the five counties that day. Groups within each block do not overlap; smaller groups are not shown. The 2022 side of the Oct. 25 comparison includes estimated Gwinnett ballots. Cobb held no Sunday voting on Oct. 23, 2022, so the Oct. 18 column compares four counties’ 2022 ballots with five counties’ 2026 ballots.
The extra young ballots could matter in a race as close as the 2022 U.S. Senate contest only if they lean heavily to one side
Voters 18 to 34 have cast 45,077 more early ballots than at this point in 2022. If those extra ballots split 60/40, they would net about 9,000 votes, 24% of Raphael Warnock’s 37,675-vote margin over Herschel Walker in the 2022 general election; at 70/30, about 18,000, or 48%. At 70/30 the net would be 16% of the 2024 presidential margin and 6% of the 2022 governor’s margin.
At an assumed 60/40 split, the 45,077 extra ballots from voters 18 to 34 would net about 9,000 votes, 24% of the 2022 U.S. Senate margin
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Net votes are the 45,077 extra accepted early ballots from voters 18 to 34 through Oct. 25, 2026, over the same point of 2022, times the difference between the two sides of each assumed split. The splits are assumptions, not measurements: our data show who voted, not how. Margins are the certified statewide differences between the top two candidates: 2022 U.S. Senate general election (Warnock over Walker, before the runoff), 2022 governor (Kemp over Abrams) and 2024 president (Trump over Harris). 2022 counts from Oct. 24, 2022 (Oct. 19 on this page’s 2026-equivalent dates) include estimated Gwinnett ballots, which affect the Gwinnett, Metro ATL Core and statewide comparisons.
On Sunday, voters 18 to 34 cast 29.1% of Georgia’s ballots, against 22.1% on the matching 2022 Sunday.
Voters 18 to 34 took 7.0 points more of Sunday’s ballots than on the matching Sunday of 2022, the widest gap of any day
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Voters 18 to 34 as a share of each day’s accepted early ballots in 2026 minus their share on the matching day of 2022, in percentage points. On Sunday, Oct. 25 they cast 29.1% of Georgia’s ballots, against 22.1% on Sunday, Oct. 30, 2022. 2022 counts from Oct. 24, 2022 (Oct. 19 on this page’s 2026-equivalent dates) include estimated Gwinnett ballots, which affect the Gwinnett, Metro ATL Core and statewide comparisons.
Voters 18 to 34 with no primary record led the change over the last three days. From Oct. 23 to 25 they supplied 9,233 of the 16,146 extra young ballots over 2022, more than young Democratic-primary voters (8,462), and on Sunday 1,306 of 2,381. Young Democratic-primary voters supplied more in the second week, Oct. 19 to 25 (18,514 against 16,774), and through Oct. 25 (30,966 against 22,572), while young Republican-primary ballots are 8,842 below 2022 through Oct. 25.
Ballots from voters 18 to 34 with no primary record grew 48.6% over 2022 on Sunday, against 6.8% for all of Georgia, and have outgrown Georgia on all 13 days
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Percentage change in each day’s accepted ballots from the matching day of 2022, Oct. 13 to 25, 2026. 2022 counts from Oct. 24, 2022 (Oct. 19 on this page’s 2026-equivalent dates) include estimated Gwinnett ballots, which affect the Gwinnett, Metro ATL Core and statewide comparisons.
Gwinnett and Cobb account for 36% of the extra young ballots through Oct. 25 and the 29-county Atlanta area for 77%. From Oct. 19 to 25, 106 counties cast more ballots from voters 18 to 34 than on the matching 2022 days, against 101 from Oct. 13 to 18, and the 45 counties in Georgia’s other metropolitan areas supplied 23% of that week’s gain, up from 17% of the gain from Oct. 13 to 18.
Gwinnett and Cobb account for 36% of the extra ballots from voters 18 to 34, and ten counties for 70%
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Accepted early ballots from voters 18 to 34 through Oct. 25, 2026 minus those at the same point of 2022 (Oct. 30, 2022), by county, with each county’s share of the statewide gain of 45,093 summed over counties. The percentages beside each name are voters 18 to 34 as a share of all early ballots accepted in that county. 2022 counts from Oct. 24, 2022 (Oct. 19 on this page’s 2026-equivalent dates) include estimated Gwinnett ballots, which affect the Gwinnett, Metro ATL Core and statewide comparisons.
Fulton and DeKalb have lost a little share of Georgia’s early vote since 2022, and Clayton has gained a little
Fulton cast 12.2% of Georgia’s early ballots through Oct. 25, against 12.5% at the same point of 2022, and DeKalb 8.54%, against 8.58%; Clayton rose from 2.50% to 2.54%. Fulton’s ballots are up 4.6% and DeKalb’s 6.3%, against 6.7% statewide, while Clayton’s are up 8.4%. Cobb (+17.3%) and Gwinnett (+20.4%) supplied most of the core’s gain.
In the second week, Fulton and DeKalb ran slightly below Georgia’s pace and Clayton well above it. From Oct. 19 to 25, Fulton’s ballots were 10.9% above the matching 2022 days, DeKalb’s 9.3% and Clayton’s 20.1%, against 11.1% statewide. All three counties have a higher early-turnout rate than in 2022: 25.0% of Fulton’s registered voters against 24.1%, 26.4% of DeKalb’s against 25.0%, and 21.4% of Clayton’s against 20.1%.
DeKalb’s accepted mail ballots are 71.7% below 2022 (4,352 against 15,399), against 49.7% statewide, while its in-person ballots are up 15.5%, against 12.5% statewide. Fulton’s mail ballots are 53.4% below 2022 (6,527 against 14,019) and its in-person ballots are up 8.6%. Mail fell in Cobb and Gwinnett too, but mail had been 10.8% of DeKalb’s 2022 early ballots, against 8.8% of Cobb’s. Our data do not show why fewer mail ballots have been accepted.
How to read this table: each row is a county or group, with its early ballots, their change from 2022, its share of Georgia’s early ballots in each year, and its in-person and mail ballots. What to notice: Fulton and DeKalb grew more slowly than Georgia and lost share, Clayton grew faster and gained share; DeKalb’s in-person ballots grew faster than Georgia’s, but its mail ballots fell by about 11,000.
| Area | Early ballots through Oct. 25 | Change from 2022 | Change from 2022, Oct. 19 to 25 | Share of Georgia’s ballots, 2026 | Share, 2022 | In-person ballots, change from 2022 | Mail ballots, 2026 vs 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulton | 217,513 | +4.6% | +10.9% | 12.22% | 12.47% | +8.6% | 6,527 vs 14,019 |
| DeKalb | 152,092 | +6.3% | +9.3% | 8.54% | 8.58% | +15.5% | 4,352 vs 15,399 |
| Clayton | 45,163 | +8.4% | +20.1% | 2.54% | 2.50% | +14.0% | 1,518 vs 3,364 |
| Fulton, DeKalb and Clayton | 414,768 | +5.6% | +11.2% | 23.30% | 23.54% | +11.6% | 12,397 vs 32,782 |
| Cobb | 150,053 | +17.3% | +21.8% | 8.43% | 7.67% | +24.4% | 4,827 vs 11,290 |
| Gwinnett | 147,664 | +20.4% | +26.6% | 8.29% | 7.35% | +27.9% | 4,944 vs 11,149 |
| Georgia | 1,780,231 | +6.7% | +11.1% | 100.00% | 100.00% | +12.5% | 78,862 vs 156,921 |
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Accepted early ballots through Sun., Oct. 25, 2026 against the same point of 2022 (Oct. 30, 2022); the Oct. 19 to 25 column compares those days with Oct. 24 to 30, 2022. Share of Georgia’s ballots is each area’s ballots divided by all accepted early ballots statewide.
Fulton’s 2022 figures come from the county’s own 2022 ballot file, Gwinnett’s from Oct. 24, 2022 on are our estimate, and DeKalb’s, Clayton’s and Cobb’s come from the state file. The turnout rates here are all accepted early ballots divided by the registered voters on each year’s voter file; the dashboard’s own rate counts only ballots matched to the voter file, so it is slightly lower (24.9% for Fulton, 26.3% for DeKalb).
We expect about 152,700 to 185,600 ballots on Monday, a weekday with every county open
Our range for Monday, Oct. 26 is 152,686 to 185,582 accepted ballots, with a central estimate of 165,922, against 149,129 on the matching Monday of 2022, Oct. 31. For the core we expect 57,133 to 71,640 and for the rest of Georgia 92,240 to 118,565.
The Day 12 method, tested on each day from Oct. 19 to 24 with the six voting days before it, caught Georgia’s count only 3 times, so we widened each end by 5%. Every county holds early voting on weekdays, unlike Sunday, when four counties that voted on the matching 2022 Sunday stayed closed. The widened range would have caught Georgia 6 times, the core 6 and the rest of Georgia 5. The 5% was chosen after looking at those same days, so these counts flatter the range.
Holding the 6.7% lead over 2022 takes about 159,100 ballots on Monday: 149,129 times Georgia’s running total over 2022’s (1,780,231 against 1,668,295). The dashboard projects about 2.70 million early ballots in all, with an 80% range of 2.54 million to 3.20 million, against 2022’s 2,534,136.
We expect 152,700 to 185,600 ballots on Monday, against 149,129 on the matching 2022 Monday, and the busiest day is likely to be Friday
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Accepted early ballots on the days matching Mon., Oct. 26 to Fri., Oct. 30, 2026 by days until Election Day (Oct. 31 to Nov. 4, 2022 and Oct. 28 to Nov. 1, 2024). 2022 counts from Oct. 24 to Nov. 1, 2022 include estimated Gwinnett ballots.
How to read this table: each row is an area, with the matching 2022 Monday, our range and central estimate for Monday, and how many of the six days from Oct. 19 to 24 the same method would have caught, with and without the 5% widening. What to notice: the unwidened method missed Georgia on 3 of 6 days; the widened range misses the rest of Georgia only on Saturday, Oct. 24, when ballots there jumped.
| Area | Matching 2022 Monday (Oct. 31) | Our range, Mon., Oct. 26 | Central estimate | Days the range would have caught, Oct. 19 to 24 | Day 12 method without widening | Days caught without widening |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metro ATL Core | 54,714 | 57,133 to 71,640 | 63,722 | 6 of 6 | 60,140 to 68,229 | 5 of 6 |
| Rest of Georgia | 94,415 | 92,240 to 118,565 | 102,194 | 5 of 6 | 97,095 to 112,919 | 4 of 6 |
| Georgia | 149,129 | 152,686 to 185,582 | 165,922 | 6 of 6 | 160,722 to 176,745 | 3 of 6 |
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Accepted early ballots, all methods. Each range is the matching 2022 Monday’s ballots times the lowest and the highest ratio of 2026 to 2022 daily ballots over the previous six non-Sunday voting days (Oct. 19 to 24, Saturday included), with the low end lowered and the high end raised by 5%; the central estimate uses the combined ratio over those six days. The back-test applies the same rule to each day from Oct. 19 to 24, using the six non-Sunday voting days before that day, and counts the days whose actual ballots fell inside the range. The 2022 column includes estimated Gwinnett ballots, which affect the core and Georgia rows. Without Gwinnett, the other four core counties’ range is 45,345 to 58,049.