Saturday set two firsts. Counties outside the Metro Atlanta Core1 outgrew the core on a Saturday for the first time, and voters 18 to 34 were a bigger share of the day’s ballots than on any earlier day.
What it means. The core held steady while the suburbs, small cities and exurbs, slow on second-week weekdays, came out on the weekend, and younger voters grew fastest. That narrowed Democratic-primary voters’ lead over their 2022 share of the day’s ballots, but their ballots are still 22.7% above 2022’s, and our data show the primary a voter last cast, not how they voted. One Saturday is not a trend: if weekday ballots outside the core now run above last week’s 11.9% ceiling, the change is real.
1 The Metro Atlanta Core counties are Fulton, DeKalb, Cobb, Clayton and Gwinnett, the most populous counties of the 29-county Atlanta metropolitan area as defined by the Census Bureau’s July 2023 delineation. The rest of Georgia is the other 154 counties. Back to text
Explore daily counts by county and voter group on the Georgia Early Voting Dashboard.
Where Saturday’s growth came from
Saturday was the first Saturday on which counties outside the Metro Atlanta Core outgrew the core. The other 154 counties cast 72,379 ballots, 19.6% more than on the matching Saturday of 2022; the five core counties cast 43,764, 15.0% more. Until then the core had led on every weekday and on the first Saturday, by 3 to 14 points. The one earlier exception was the first Sunday, when few ballots were cast.
The jump came from the places that had been slowest. The Atlanta suburbs, which opened early voting far ahead of 2022, had slipped to level with it by the second week, then grew 14.7% on Saturday. Small cities went from flat to 31.2% above 2022, and 25 of the 32 small-city counties beat their 2022 Saturday. The Atlanta exurbs and rural counties outside the Black Belt also grew. The 11 Black Belt counties, which cast 778 ballots between them, did not.
The picture from Day 11 holds, but its gains shrank. The core still casts more of Georgia’s early ballots than in 2022, 39.4% against 37.8%, and so do the Atlanta suburbs; every other group still casts less. On Saturday itself, though, the core’s part of the day’s ballots fell below its 2022 level (37.7% against 38.6%). Small cities and the exurbs recovered some of the ground they had lost, and the Black Belt counties slipped further behind.
Only the Metro ATL Core and ATL Suburban counties are ahead of their 2022 share of Georgia’s early ballots, and both gains narrowed on Saturday
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Each group’s share of Georgia’s accepted early ballots on the same days, Tue., Oct. 13 to Sat., Oct. 24, 2026 against Tue., Oct. 18 to Sat., Oct. 29, 2022, and the percentage change between the two shares. The seven groups do not overlap and together contain all 159 counties. 2022 counts from Oct. 24, 2022 (Oct. 19 on this page’s 2026-equivalent dates) include estimated Gwinnett ballots, which are part of the statewide total every share is measured against.
How to read this table: each row is a county group and each column a period, with the bar showing the change in accepted ballots from the matching days of 2022. Small counties cast a few hundred ballots a day, so a few voters move their percentages. What to notice: the Metro Atlanta Core’s column is nearly the same on both Saturdays, while the Atlanta suburban, small-city and exurban columns jump between the second week and the second Saturday.
| County group (counties) | Oct. 13 to 16, Tue. to Fri. | Sat., Oct. 17 | Oct. 19 to 23, Mon. to Fri. | Sat., Oct. 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metro ATL Core (5) | +29.9% | +14.9% | +16.4% | +15.0% |
| ATL Suburban counties (6) | +53.3% | +3.0% | −0.5% | +14.7% |
| ATL Exurban counties (18) | +19.8% | +10.0% | +9.8% | +25.5% |
| Counties with larger cities (45) | +21.1% | +7.5% | +13.2% | +18.0% |
| Small-city counties (32) | +8.0% | +4.1% | −0.2% | +31.2% |
| Rural counties (not Black Belt) (42) | +11.1% | +7.0% | +4.1% | +13.0% |
| Rural Black Belt counties (11) | +2.6% | +4.1% | +4.6% | −2.0% |
| Rest of Georgia (154) | +22.9% | +6.3% | +6.7% | +19.6% |
| Georgia (159) | +25.5% | +9.8% | +10.2% | +17.8% |
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Percentage change in accepted ballots from the matching days of 2022: Oct. 13 to 16, 2026 against Oct. 18 to 21, 2022, Oct. 17 against Oct. 22, Oct. 19 to 23 against Oct. 24 to 28, and Oct. 24 against Oct. 29. Oct. 18, a Sunday, is not shown. 2022 counts from Oct. 24, 2022 (Oct. 19 on this page’s 2026-equivalent dates) include estimated Gwinnett ballots, which affect the Gwinnett, Metro ATL Core and statewide comparisons.
One caveat: the core’s number leans on our estimate for Gwinnett. The state file is missing most of Gwinnett’s 2022 ballots for Oct. 24 to Nov. 1, so we estimated them. Without Gwinnett the core’s other four counties grew 9.1% on Saturday, which widens the gap with the rest of Georgia. The rest-of-Georgia figure does not depend on the estimate.
Who is voting: younger voters and those who skip primaries
Democratic-primary ballots are not falling. Voters whose latest primary was Democratic have cast 811,245 early ballots, 22.7% more than at this point in 2022, and 47,481 on Saturday, 28.7% more. What narrowed is their lead over 2022’s share of each day’s ballots, from 9.9 points on Oct. 13 to 3.5 on Saturday, as their growth over 2022 cooled from 63.4% to 28.7%. Republican-primary voters, who had trailed 2022 every day since the first Saturday, matched it on the second.
Black and young voters are turning out in larger numbers than in 2022. Black voters cast about a third of all early ballots (32.9%), a bigger share than in 2022 (29.9%) or 2024 (26.1%), though 21.0% fewer ballots than in 2024. Voters 18 to 34 are 12.2% of ballots, up from 10.4% in 2022 but below the 16.5% of 2024.
The shift on Saturday came from voters who skip primaries, and from the young. Voters with no Georgia primary record, most of whom registered long before this fall, were 29.0% of Saturday’s ballots, up from 27.5% in 2022, a gap that has appeared only on weekends. Voters 18 to 34 were 24.5%, against 20.3%, the biggest gap of any day. The racial mix moved less: Black and White voters’ shares of Saturday’s ballots both sit within the range of earlier days.
These are each voter’s latest primary, age and race as recorded, not how they voted. The 2022 side of the comparisons includes modeled Gwinnett ballots from Oct. 19 on.
Voters 18 to 34 held a larger share of daily ballots than in 2022 on every day, most of all on Saturday, while Democratic-primary voters’ lead over 2022 narrowed from 9.9 to 3.5 points
Scroll horizontally to see the full chart.
Each line is a group’s share of the day’s accepted ballots in 2026 minus its share on the matching day of 2022, in percentage points; above zero means a larger share than in 2022. Open markers are weekend days. Latest party primary is the primary ballot a voter last cast in Georgia; voters with no primary record may be new, may vote only in general elections or may be in nonpartisan contests. 2022 counts from Oct. 24, 2022 (Oct. 19 on this page’s 2026-equivalent dates) include estimated Gwinnett ballots, which affect the Gwinnett, Metro ATL Core and statewide comparisons.
Younger voters with no primary history
Voters 18 to 34 with no primary record are a growing part of this early vote. They have cast 87,649 ballots, 5.0% of the total and 31.9% more than at this point in 2022, and they outgrew Georgia on every one of the 12 days of voting. On Saturday they were 11.8% of all ballots, up from 9.0%.
This group supplied much of Saturday’s growth. They cast 4,758 of Saturday’s 17,541 extra ballots over 2022, 27%, while making up 9% of 2022’s Saturday ballots, and about a quarter of the extra ballots outside the core. We know their age, race, gender, county and history, but with no primary ballot on record the data carry no partisan signal, so we cannot say how they will vote.
Ballots from voters 18 to 34 with no primary record ran 25.8% to 57.4% above 2022 every day, against 7.8% to 35.0% for all of Georgia
Scroll horizontally to see the full chart.
Percentage change in each day’s accepted ballots from the matching day of 2022, Oct. 13 to 24, 2026. Open markers are weekend days. 2022 counts from Oct. 24, 2022 (Oct. 19 on this page’s 2026-equivalent dates) include estimated Gwinnett ballots, which affect the Gwinnett, Metro ATL Core and statewide comparisons.
They are new-ish, not brand new. Six in ten (61%) voted in the 2024 general election, and a quarter (25%) were not yet registered for it. The rest (14.5%) were registered and sat 2024 out, a group that has grown 77.1% since 2022. Most were already on the rolls: voters registered before Nov. 5, 2024 are up 46.3% on 2022, while those registered since are up only 3.3%. Nearly half registered too recently to have a full record of the last four elections, and about one in twelve voted in none of them.
The group is more Black and Hispanic and less White than it was in 2022. Black voters are now 34.4% of it, up from 28.1%, and nearly match White voters in number. Hispanic voters have grown from 4.8% to 13.4% of the group, with their ballots up 266.1%, while White voters’ ballots are down 6.8%. Women are 57.6% of the group, and their ballots are growing about twice as fast as men’s (41.6% against 19.4%). On Saturday the gains were larger still.
Among voters 18 to 34 with no primary record, Hispanic ballots are 266.1% above 2022 and Black ballots 61.6%, while White ballots are 6.8% below
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Percentage change in accepted ballots from voters 18 to 34 with no Georgia primary record, through Oct. 24, 2026 against the same point in 2022 and on Saturday, Oct. 24 against Saturday, Oct. 29, 2022. 2022 counts from Oct. 24, 2022 (Oct. 19 on this page’s 2026-equivalent dates) include estimated Gwinnett ballots, which affect the Gwinnett, Metro ATL Core and statewide comparisons.
How to read this table: each row is a group within the voters 18 to 34 who have no primary record, with its ballots in 2026 and 2022, the change between them and its share of the group in each year. What to notice: voters who voted in none of the last four elections and in only one November grew fastest, and voters registered before Nov. 5, 2024 grew far faster than those registered since.
| Group | Ballots, 2026 | Ballots, 2022 | Change from 2022 | Share of these voters, 2026 | Share, 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race | |||||
| White | 31,967 | 34,291 | −6.8% | 36.5% | 51.6% |
| Black | 30,152 | 18,663 | +61.6% | 34.4% | 28.1% |
| Hispanic | 11,707 | 3,198 | +266.1% | 13.4% | 4.8% |
| Asian | 4,896 | 3,074 | +59.3% | 5.6% | 4.6% |
| Other races | 8,927 | 7,206 | +23.9% | 10.2% | 10.8% |
| Gender | |||||
| Women | 50,521 | 35,675 | +41.6% | 57.6% | 53.7% |
| Men | 36,204 | 30,329 | +19.4% | 41.3% | 45.7% |
| Voting history | |||||
| Registered too recently for a full record | 42,091 | 34,741 | +21.2% | 48.0% | 52.3% |
| Voted in one of the last two Novembers | 20,111 | 11,922 | +68.7% | 22.9% | 17.9% |
| Voted in both Novembers, no primaries | 18,383 | 16,181 | +13.6% | 21.0% | 24.4% |
| Voted in none of the last four elections | 7,064 | 3,588 | +96.9% | 8.1% | 5.4% |
| Registration | |||||
| Registered before Nov. 5, 2024 | 66,160 | 45,237 | +46.3% | 75.5% | 68.1% |
| Registered since Nov. 5, 2024 | 21,476 | 20,788 | +3.3% | 24.5% | 31.3% |
Scroll horizontally to see the full table.
All accepted ballots through Oct. 24, 2026 and through the matching day of 2022, Oct. 29, from voters aged 18 to 34 whose voter history shows no Georgia primary ballot. The four elections are the 2022 and 2024 Novembers and primaries. “Registered since” means first on the voter file after the previous November general election, Nov. 5, 2024 for 2026 and Nov. 3, 2020 for 2022; the 2022 shares omit the 0.6% of 2022 ballots from voters outside the registered universe. Bars in the change column stop at +100%. 2022 counts from Oct. 24, 2022 (Oct. 19 on this page’s 2026-equivalent dates) include estimated Gwinnett ballots, which affect the Gwinnett, Metro ATL Core and statewide comparisons.
Nearly half of these voters live in the five core counties, but they are growing faster in the suburbs and larger-city counties. The core holds 47.5% of them, yet their ballots are up 28.1% there, against 45.4% in the Atlanta suburbs and 41.1% in counties with larger cities. On Saturday the biggest gains came in small-city counties (+71.5%) and counties with larger cities (+66.8%). Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb and DeKalb have the most of these voters, and among counties with at least 2,000 early ballots they make up the largest shares of ballots in Whitfield (10.4%), Bulloch (7.3%) and Gwinnett (7.2%).
How to read this table: each row is a county group, with the ballots cast by voters 18 to 34 with no primary record, their share of all ballots cast in those counties in 2026 and at the same point of 2022, and the change from 2022 through Oct. 24 and on Saturday. What to notice: the core has the most of these voters and the lowest growth among Atlanta-area groups, while small-city counties grew 71.5% on Saturday against 28.9% through Oct. 24.
| County group (counties) | Ballots through Oct. 24 | Share of group’s ballots | Same point, 2022 | Change from 2022 | Saturday, Oct. 24, change from 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metro ATL Core (5) | 41,658 | 6.1% | 5.2% | +28.1% | +43.8% |
| ATL Suburban counties (6) | 11,284 | 5.0% | 3.8% | +45.4% | +63.3% |
| ATL Exurban counties (18) | 8,076 | 4.3% | 3.6% | +28.4% | +52.3% |
| Counties with larger cities (45) | 18,249 | 4.5% | 3.4% | +41.1% | +66.8% |
| Small-city counties (32) | 5,661 | 4.1% | 3.0% | +28.9% | +71.5% |
| Rural counties (not Black Belt) (42) | 2,421 | 2.5% | 2.2% | +8.9% | +35.0% |
| Rural Black Belt counties (11) | 300 | 2.1% | 2.2% | −8.5% | −22.9% |
Scroll horizontally to see the full table.
All accepted ballots through Oct. 24, 2026 and through the matching day of 2022, Oct. 29, with the cohort’s share of all ballots cast in each group of counties; the last column compares Saturday, Oct. 24 with Saturday, Oct. 29, 2022. The Black Belt counties cast 37 of these ballots on Saturday, so their percentage changes rest on small counts. 2022 counts from Oct. 24, 2022 (Oct. 19 on this page’s 2026-equivalent dates) include estimated Gwinnett ballots, which affect the Gwinnett, Metro ATL Core and statewide comparisons.
Newly registered voters
Newly registered voters are a smaller force than their name suggests. Voters who first appeared on the voter file after Nov. 5, 2024 have cast 55,782 early ballots, 3.2% of the total and 16.7% fewer than new voters had cast by this point in 2022. Most voters with no primary record are not new: 86% were registered before that date.
The decline is widespread, and it differs by race and age. New voters’ ballots are above their 2022 count in only 19 of 159 counties, and the five core counties account for 43.8% of them. White new voters are down 35.2%, Hispanic new voters up 74.3%, and Black and Asian new voters level. Half of new voters (52%) are 18 to 34, and they are the only age group above 2022. Voters whose latest primary was Democratic are 22.0% of new voters’ ballots and those whose latest was Republican 7.4%, against 14.6% and 13.6% in 2022; most have no primary record.
Newly registered Hispanic voters’ ballots are 74.3% above 2022 and voters 18 to 34 8.6% above, while newly registered White voters’ ballots are 35.2% below and every group over 35 is down about a third
Scroll horizontally to see the full chart.
Percentage change in all accepted ballots through Oct. 24, 2026 from voters who first appeared on the voter file after the previous November general election, against all such ballots through the matching day of 2022, Oct. 29, with 2026 and 2022 ballots beside each label. 2022 counts from Oct. 24, 2022 (Oct. 19 on this page’s 2026-equivalent dates) include estimated Gwinnett ballots, which affect the Gwinnett, Metro ATL Core and statewide comparisons.
How our weekend forecast did
Our Saturday forecast was too low for Georgia, the rest of Georgia and Gwinnett, too high for Fulton, and right for the core as a whole. Georgia’s 116,143 ballots beat the top of our range by 1,235, the rest of Georgia’s beat its range by 4,662, and Gwinnett came in 843 above its range. DeKalb, Cobb, Clayton and the core as a whole landed inside theirs. Fulton came in below: 12,788 ballots, 855 under its range and only 3.5% above its 2022 Saturday.
The misses have a pattern. We applied weekday growth rates to a weekend day, which works where weekends look like weekdays and fails where they do not. Fulton’s weekend ballots have stayed within 4% of 2022’s on both Saturdays and the first Sunday, so Saturday’s overshoot elsewhere is not a reason to raise our Sunday range.
How to read this table: each row is an area, with the ballots accepted on the matching Saturday of 2022, the range we published on Day 11, and what happened. What to notice: the misses above the range are in the rest of Georgia and Gwinnett, and the miss below it is Fulton.
| Area | Sat., Oct. 29, 2022 | Our forecast, Sat., Oct. 24, 2026 | Actual, Sat., Oct. 24, 2026 | Change from 2022 | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 98,602 | 106,236 to 114,908 | 116,143 | +17.8% | Above the range |
| Metro ATL Core | 38,061 | 41,829 to 47,460 | 43,764 | +15.0% | Inside the range |
| Rest of Georgia | 60,541 | 62,233 to 67,717 | 72,379 | +19.6% | Above the range |
| Fulton | 12,360 | 13,643 to 14,380 | 12,788 | +3.5% | Below the range |
| DeKalb | 8,237 | 7,849 to 10,659 | 9,130 | +10.8% | Inside the range |
| Cobb | 7,987 | 8,568 to 11,001 | 9,140 | +14.4% | Inside the range |
| Clayton | 1,955 | 2,165 to 2,600 | 2,252 | +15.2% | Inside the range |
| Gwinnett | 7,522 | 8,681 to 9,611 | 10,454 | +39.0% | Above the range |
Scroll horizontally to see the full table.
Accepted ballots on Saturday. The 2022 column is the matching day. 2022 counts from Oct. 24, 2022 (Oct. 19 on this page’s 2026-equivalent dates) include estimated Gwinnett ballots, which affect the Gwinnett, Metro ATL Core and statewide comparisons.
Sunday and the final week
We expect 28,600 to 35,800 accepted ballots on Sunday, Oct. 25, against 26,544 on the matching Sunday of 2022. The range comes from how 2026 has run against 2022 over the past week, and its high end allows for the first Sunday, which ran 1.35 times its 2022 match. By Sunday night the running total would be about 1.78 million to 1.79 million. Sunday belongs to the core counties, which cast 75% of Sunday’s ballots in 2022 and 77% on the first Sunday, so the total depends on their hours.
The final week decides the total. In 2022 the last five days of early voting brought 839,641 ballots, a third of the early vote, and the final Friday was the biggest day, with 242,300. Friday, Oct. 30 is the last day this year. The dashboard projects 2.70 million early ballots, with an 80% range of 2.53 million to 3.21 million whose low end is about 2022’s final total of 2,534,136.
Georgia has accepted 1,751,149 early ballots, 6.7% more than at this point in 2022 and 37.3% fewer than in 2024. That is 21.3% of the 8,223,613 registered voters, against 20.9% of 7,836,718 in 2022 and 33.9% of 8,236,958 in 2024.