GA-14 Early Vote: Party Share by Precinct (as of 2/22/26)

This Bluesky post about early voting primary turnout in Texas from Brian Tyler Cohen has been making the rounds:

Why is this getting attention? Because Democrats are searching for data signals that Texas voters are shifting their way, and with a 25k primary-ballot advantage thus far, there’s something to look at.

If there is an actual shift in the electorate towards Democrats, this plays favorably for the Senate elections this November.

Like Texas, Georgia doesn’t require party registration. Both states record which party’s primary ballot a voter pulls: Democratic, Republican, or Non-Partisan.

GA-14’s special runoff has a single multiparty ballot, so we can’t do the same apples-to-apples primary comparison. But we can use each absentee voter’s last partisan primary on record as a partisan proxy and layer that onto early turnout, aggregating individual voters’ assumed preference rather than applying broad precinct-level percentages.

So, from Georgia’s data, what do we know (and not know)?

What we know

22,706 early votes cast (as of Feb 23), with each voter’s precinct and last partisan primary on record. That’s a real compositional signal, not a poll or a model.
Cobb County is the only county where early voters lean Democratic. 46% of Cobb’s early voters last pulled a Democratic primary ballot vs. 42% Republican, producing a D+3.7% EV lean. At 5,361 early votes, it’s also the district’s largest early-vote county. Note that we’re only counting GA-14 precincts in Cobb, not the entire county.
Every other county skews Republican by EV primary share, with Walker, Murray, and Chattooga each exceeding R+50% EV.
Most precincts show a D-leaning swing vs. 2024 general margins, meaning the early electorate’s primary composition is less Republican than the 2024 actual vote. That could reflect differential enthusiasm, a shifting electorate, or both.

What we don’t know

Conclusions drawn from early vote alone lack statistical validity. We’re looking at a partial dataset from a low-turnout special runoff. Patterns that appear meaningful now may not hold once the full electorate votes.
How the ±X% voters break. Roughly 12% of early voters (EV share) have no partisan primary history or pulled a non-partisan ballot. In competitive precincts, that uncertainty is large enough to flip the lean entirely.
Whether early voters represent Election Day voters. Early vote in a special runoff skews toward higher-propensity, more partisan voters. Election Day turnout could look very different.
Whether primary history predicts 2026 vote choice. A voter who last pulled a Republican primary ballot in 2020 may not vote Republican in 2026. It’s a proxy, and an imperfect one, especially in a race with no party primary.

Open questions

How does Election Day turnout by precinct compare in partisan composition to the early vote?
Which precincts are campaigns targeting? Is either side overperforming its historical base?
How many mail ballots have been requested but not yet returned, and where?

Note: primary history reflects who is voting early, not how they will vote. This is not a vote-share forecast.

Let’s look at the data…

How to read the data

EV Lean is the early electorate’s partisan composition by primary history: Dem% minus Rep%, excluding voters with no primary history or non-partisan primaries. Positive = more Democratic primary history; negative = more Republican.

2024 Margin is the Republican minus Democratic vote share in that precinct in the 2024 general election (R+ positive). This is the baseline we’re comparing against.

Swing = EV Lean + 2024 Margin. It measures how far the early electorate’s primary composition has shifted from the 2024 result. A D+ swing in a red precinct doesn’t mean Democrats are winning; it means the early voters are less Republican than 2024 turnout was. The ± figure shows the share of early voters with no partisan primary history; they could move the swing in either direction.

Data as of 2026-02-23 · 22,706 total early votes · Source: GA Secretary of State

2026 EV Party Share (Dem% − Rep%): D+50 D+15 Even R+15 R+50 No EV yet

Important: Colors reflect each voter's last partisan primary on record — not their 2024 vote and not a prediction of how they will vote. A "blue" precinct means more early voters last voted in a Democratic primary; a "red" precinct means more last voted in a Republican primary.
Source: GA SOS absentee file × GA voter history file (Oct 2024). Civic Forge Solutions analysis.

Early Vote Summary by County

GA-14 Precincts Only — click a county row to expand precincts; click a precinct to zoom the map

County / Precinct	Early Votes	Dem%	Rep%	No Data + N.P.%	EV Lean	2024 Margin	Swing (pts)
▶ Catoosa (11 precincts)	2,924	23.0%	65.9%	11.1%	R+42.9%	R+45.5%	D+2.6 ± 11.1
BLACKSTOCK	76	25.0%	65.8%	9.2%	R+40.8%	R+60.9%	D+20.1 ± 9.2
BOYNTON	422	21.3%	70.1%	8.5%	R+48.8%	R+42.6%	R+6.2 ± 8.5
CATOOSA KEITH	184	27.7%	63.0%	9.2%	R+35.3%	R+54.6%	D+19.3 ± 9.2
CHAMBERS	198	20.2%	70.2%	9.6%	R+50.0%	R+52.9%	D+2.9 ± 9.6
FT OGLETHORPE	228	25.4%	58.3%	16.2%	R+32.9%	R+37.9%	D+5.0 ± 16.2
GRAYSVILLE	221	27.1%	57.0%	15.8%	R+29.9%	R+44.2%	D+14.3 ± 15.8
LAKEVIEW	166	18.1%	67.5%	14.5%	R+49.4%	R+43.5%	R+5.9 ± 14.5
POPLAR SPRINGS	236	17.4%	73.3%	9.3%	R+55.9%	R+48.6%	R+7.3 ± 9.3
RINGGOLD	595	26.4%	64.7%	8.9%	R+38.3%	R+38.9%	D+0.6 ± 8.9
WESTSIDE	444	23.0%	64.0%	13.1%	R+41.0%	R+40.4%	R+0.6 ± 13.1
WOODSTATION	154	16.2%	73.4%	10.4%	R+57.1%	R+58.8%	D+1.7 ± 10.4
▶ Chattooga (7 precincts)	693	18.5%	70.7%	10.8%	R+52.2%	R+52.0%	R+0.2 ± 10.8
DIRTTOWN	52	19.2%	73.1%	7.7%	R+53.8%	R+54.4%	D+0.6 ± 7.7
HAYWOOD	—	—	—	—	—	R+65.8%	—
LYERLY	84	20.2%	65.5%	14.3%	R+45.2%	R+53.3%	D+8.1 ± 14.3
MENLO	64	31.3%	60.9%	7.8%	R+29.7%	R+55.1%	D+25.4 ± 7.8
SUBLIGNA	—	—	—	—	—	R+79.6%	—
SUMMERVILLE	267	19.1%	67.0%	13.9%	R+47.9%	R+39.9%	R+8.0 ± 13.9
TRION	226	13.3%	79.2%	7.5%	R+65.9%	R+59.0%	R+6.9 ± 7.5
▶ Cobb (30 precincts)	5,361	46.1%	42.5%	11.4%	D+3.7%	R+2.7%	D+6.4 ± 11.4
ACWORTH 1A	316	51.6%	36.7%	11.7%	D+14.9%	D+8.1%	D+6.8 ± 11.7
ACWORTH 1B	278	44.2%	43.2%	12.6%	D+1.1%	R+0.3%	D+1.4 ± 12.6
ACWORTH 1C	175	66.3%	21.7%	12.0%	D+44.6%	D+31.8%	D+12.8 ± 12.0
BAKER 01	14	57.1%	21.4%	21.4%	D+35.7%	D+3.9%	D+31.8 ± 21.4
CHEATHAM HILL 03	173	54.9%	33.5%	11.6%	D+21.4%	D+12.3%	D+9.1 ± 11.6
DOWELL 01	131	45.8%	43.5%	10.7%	D+2.3%	D+21.0%	R+18.7 ± 10.7
DURHAM 01	233	38.2%	48.5%	13.3%	R+10.3%	R+23.6%	D+13.3 ± 13.3
FORD 01	163	47.2%	39.9%	12.9%	D+7.4%	R+22.3%	D+29.7 ± 12.9
FREY 01	170	38.2%	52.9%	8.8%	R+14.7%	R+16.5%	D+1.8 ± 8.8
HARRISON 01	164	40.9%	46.3%	12.8%	R+5.5%	R+19.8%	D+14.3 ± 12.8
HAYES 01	221	46.6%	44.8%	8.6%	D+1.8%	R+13.7%	D+15.5 ± 8.6
KEMP 01	72	22.2%	70.8%	6.9%	R+48.6%	R+15.6%	R+33.0 ± 6.9
KEMP 02	206	55.8%	35.9%	8.3%	D+19.9%	D+0.9%	D+19.0 ± 8.3
KEMP 03	217	35.5%	53.0%	11.5%	R+17.5%	R+23.8%	D+6.3 ± 11.5
KENNESAW 2A	156	53.8%	31.4%	14.7%	D+22.4%	D+11.0%	D+11.4 ± 14.7
KENNESAW 3A	13	38.5%	30.8%	30.8%	D+7.7%	D+0.6%	D+7.1 ± 30.8
KENNESAW 4A	163	44.8%	38.7%	16.6%	D+6.1%	D+13.4%	R+7.3 ± 16.6
KENNESAW 5A	198	55.6%	30.8%	13.6%	D+24.7%	D+18.0%	D+6.7 ± 13.6
LOST MOUNTAIN 01	319	45.8%	42.6%	11.6%	D+3.1%	D+3.5%	R+0.4 ± 11.6
LOST MOUNTAIN 02	270	38.9%	47.8%	13.3%	R+8.9%	R+24.7%	D+15.8 ± 13.3
LOST MOUNTAIN 03	446	41.9%	48.4%	9.6%	R+6.5%	R+4.1%	R+2.4 ± 9.6
LOST MOUNTAIN 04	189	43.9%	45.5%	10.6%	R+1.6%	R+17.5%	D+15.9 ± 10.6
MARS HILL 01	145	36.6%	55.2%	8.3%	R+18.6%	R+31.9%	D+13.3 ± 8.3
MARS HILL 02	163	50.9%	34.4%	14.7%	D+16.6%	R+4.3%	D+20.9 ± 14.7
MCCLURE 01	182	40.7%	49.5%	9.9%	R+8.8%	R+14.6%	D+5.8 ± 9.9
NORTH COBB 01	86	61.6%	32.6%	5.8%	D+29.1%	D+10.6%	D+18.5 ± 5.8
OREGON 01	100	36.0%	50.0%	14.0%	R+14.0%	R+1.8%	R+12.2 ± 14.0
OREGON 05	169	58.6%	33.1%	8.3%	D+25.4%	D+27.6%	R+2.2 ± 8.3
PINE MOUNTAIN 01	81	53.1%	38.3%	8.6%	D+14.8%	R+5.6%	D+20.4 ± 8.6
VAUGHAN 01	148	44.6%	45.3%	10.1%	R+0.7%	R+19.1%	D+18.4 ± 10.1
▶ Dade (7 precincts)	552	21.0%	69.0%	10.0%	R+48.0%	R+57.1%	D+9.1 ± 10.0
DAVIS	74	12.2%	78.4%	9.5%	R+66.2%	R+75.2%	D+9.0 ± 9.5
NEW HOME	24	12.5%	70.8%	16.7%	R+58.3%	R+59.8%	D+1.5 ± 16.7
NEW SALEM	96	32.3%	59.4%	8.3%	R+27.1%	R+49.3%	D+22.2 ± 8.3
NORTH DADE	101	19.8%	68.3%	11.9%	R+48.5%	R+47.6%	R+0.9 ± 11.9
SOUTH DADE	45	20.0%	75.6%	4.4%	R+55.6%	R+57.3%	D+1.7 ± 4.4
TRENTON	146	16.4%	73.3%	10.3%	R+56.8%	R+58.8%	D+2.0 ± 10.3
WEST BROW	66	30.3%	59.1%	10.6%	R+28.8%	R+43.9%	D+15.1 ± 10.6
▶ Floyd (19 precincts)	3,288	37.3%	47.4%	15.2%	R+10.1%	R+32.9%	D+22.8 ± 15.2
ALTO PARK	405	35.6%	44.0%	20.5%	R+8.4%	R+18.9%	D+10.5 ± 20.5
CAVE SPRING	43	58.1%	37.2%	4.7%	D+20.9%	R+53.4%	D+74.3 ± 4.7
CHULIO	54	22.2%	61.1%	16.7%	R+38.9%	R+62.8%	D+23.9 ± 16.7
COOSA (NORTH CAROLINA)	68	41.2%	42.6%	16.2%	R+1.5%	R+54.5%	D+53.0 ± 16.2
EAST ROME	501	42.7%	44.1%	13.2%	R+1.4%	R+4.9%	D+3.5 ± 13.2
ETOWAH	414	30.9%	58.0%	11.1%	R+27.1%	R+49.7%	D+22.6 ± 11.1
EVERETT SPRINGS	2	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	R+100.0%	R+63.6%	R+36.4 ± 0.0
FLOYD SPRINGS	42	28.6%	54.8%	16.7%	R+26.2%	R+64.0%	D+37.8 ± 16.7
FOSTER'S MILL	19	21.1%	68.4%	10.5%	R+47.4%	R+69.1%	D+21.7 ± 10.5
GARDEN LAKES	458	39.5%	44.3%	16.2%	R+4.8%	R+13.5%	D+8.7 ± 16.2
GLENWOOD	182	30.8%	53.8%	15.4%	R+23.1%	R+40.4%	D+17.3 ± 15.4
HOWELL	43	20.9%	67.4%	11.6%	R+46.5%	R+73.4%	D+26.9 ± 11.6
LINDALE	178	33.7%	48.9%	17.4%	R+15.2%	R+47.7%	D+32.5 ± 17.4
NEW ARMUCHEE	62	27.4%	59.7%	12.9%	R+32.3%	R+57.0%	D+24.7 ± 12.9
NORTH ROME	174	51.7%	30.5%	17.8%	D+21.3%	R+10.8%	D+32.1 ± 17.8
SHANNON	99	28.3%	62.6%	9.1%	R+34.3%	R+61.0%	D+26.7 ± 9.1
SOUTH FLOYD	129	27.9%	58.1%	14.0%	R+30.2%	R+62.3%	D+32.1 ± 14.0
SOUTH ROME	148	44.6%	37.8%	17.6%	D+6.8%	D+27.3%	R+20.5 ± 17.6
TOWN ROME	267	44.2%	39.3%	16.5%	D+4.9%	D+10.9%	R+6.0 ± 16.5
▶ Murray (7 precincts)	808	11.3%	76.4%	12.4%	R+65.1%	R+63.0%	R+2.1 ± 12.4
CARTERS-DOOLITTLE	74	14.9%	70.3%	14.9%	R+55.4%	R+70.2%	D+14.8 ± 14.9
MCDONALD	92	13.0%	81.5%	5.4%	R+68.5%	R+63.1%	R+5.4 ± 5.4
NORTH	54	7.4%	75.9%	16.7%	R+68.5%	R+71.7%	D+3.2 ± 16.7
SHUCK PEN	90	4.4%	80.0%	15.6%	R+75.6%	R+62.8%	R+12.8 ± 15.6
SOUTHWEST	61	9.8%	77.0%	13.1%	R+67.2%	R+71.0%	D+3.8 ± 13.1
SPRING PLACE	131	13.7%	71.8%	14.5%	R+58.0%	R+56.4%	R+1.6 ± 14.5
TOWN	306	11.8%	77.1%	11.1%	R+65.4%	R+57.4%	R+8.0 ± 11.1
▶ Paulding (20 precincts)	4,820	35.0%	54.8%	10.2%	R+19.8%	R+21.0%	D+1.2 ± 10.2
Activation Church	78	30.8%	56.4%	12.8%	R+25.6%	R+47.6%	D+22.0 ± 12.8
Burnt Hickory Park	117	15.4%	75.2%	9.4%	R+59.8%	R+54.4%	R+5.4 ± 9.4
Carl Scoggins Middle School	294	28.9%	57.5%	13.6%	R+28.6%	R+47.8%	D+19.2 ± 13.6
Crossroads Middle School	324	33.6%	53.7%	12.7%	R+20.1%	R+21.8%	D+1.7 ± 12.7
Crossroads Public Library	89	34.8%	51.7%	13.5%	R+16.9%	R+31.0%	D+14.1 ± 13.5
Dianne Wright Innovation Center	126	32.5%	61.1%	6.3%	R+28.6%	R+27.5%	R+1.1 ± 6.3
Dobbins Middle School	247	57.1%	32.8%	10.1%	D+24.3%	R+47.0%	D+71.3 ± 10.1
East Paulding Middle School	456	31.1%	56.1%	12.7%	R+25.0%	R+29.8%	D+4.8 ± 12.7
High Shoals Baptist Church	38	15.8%	78.9%	5.3%	R+63.2%	R+66.7%	D+3.5 ± 5.3
Hiram First United Methodist Church	111	62.2%	24.3%	13.5%	D+37.8%	D+46.1%	R+8.3 ± 13.5
Legacy Baptist Church	295	36.6%	56.6%	6.8%	R+20.0%	R+6.0%	R+14.0 ± 6.8
Lena Moses Middle School	442	36.7%	54.5%	8.8%	R+17.9%	R+9.7%	R+8.2 ± 8.8
Paulding County Airport	246	21.1%	70.7%	8.1%	R+49.6%	R+48.8%	R+0.8 ± 8.1
Poplar Springs Baptist Church	149	33.6%	58.4%	8.1%	R+24.8%	D+5.6%	R+30.4 ± 8.1
Roland Russom Elementary School	316	40.2%	49.1%	10.8%	R+8.9%	R+18.9%	D+10.0 ± 10.8
South Paulding Middle School	281	35.9%	54.4%	9.6%	R+18.5%	R+19.9%	D+1.4 ± 9.6
Tabernacle Baptist Church	439	46.0%	46.0%	8.0%	R+0.0%	D+6.2%	R+6.2 ± 8.0
Taylor Farm Park	46	37.0%	56.5%	6.5%	R+19.6%	R+9.9%	R+9.7 ± 6.5
Watson Government Complex	290	30.3%	58.3%	11.4%	R+27.9%	R+3.5%	R+24.4 ± 11.4
White Oak Park	436	26.1%	62.8%	11.0%	R+36.7%	R+26.8%	R+9.9 ± 11.0
▶ Polk (7 precincts)	1,336	28.9%	64.3%	6.8%	R+35.4%	R+54.3%	D+18.9 ± 6.8
ARAGON	161	22.4%	72.0%	5.6%	R+49.7%	R+65.4%	D+15.7 ± 5.6
BLOOMING GROVE	82	34.1%	56.1%	9.8%	R+22.0%	R+66.4%	D+44.4 ± 9.8
CEDARTOWN	383	34.7%	57.4%	7.8%	R+22.7%	R+30.9%	D+8.2 ± 7.8
FISH CREEK	142	29.6%	62.0%	8.5%	R+32.4%	R+65.4%	D+33.0 ± 8.5
LAKE CREEK	163	19.6%	75.5%	4.9%	R+55.8%	R+67.5%	D+11.7 ± 4.9
ROCKMART	302	33.1%	60.3%	6.6%	R+27.2%	R+48.2%	D+21.0 ± 6.6
YOUNGS GROVE	103	14.6%	81.6%	3.9%	R+67.0%	R+71.5%	D+4.5 ± 3.9
▶ Walker (11 precincts)	1,094	17.5%	71.7%	10.9%	R+54.2%	R+48.9%	R+5.3 ± 10.9
ARMUCHEE VALLEY	29	17.2%	72.4%	10.3%	R+55.2%	R+60.2%	D+5.0 ± 10.3
CHATTANOOGA VALLEY	68	23.5%	64.7%	11.8%	R+41.2%	R+44.9%	D+3.7 ± 11.8
CHICKAMAUGA	88	17.0%	75.0%	8.0%	R+58.0%	R+55.6%	R+2.4 ± 8.0
FAIRVIEW	35	28.6%	48.6%	22.9%	R+20.0%	R+42.4%	D+22.4 ± 22.9
FAIRYLAND	2	50.0%	50.0%	0.0%	R+0.0%	R+12.7%	D+12.7 ± 0.0
KENSINGTON	34	20.6%	64.7%	14.7%	R+44.1%	R+50.3%	D+6.2 ± 14.7
LA FAYETTE	396	18.9%	69.4%	11.6%	R+50.5%	R+50.8%	D+0.3 ± 11.6
MOUNTAIN	15	26.7%	53.3%	20.0%	R+26.7%	R+45.2%	D+18.5 ± 20.0
ROCK SPRING	264	14.0%	75.8%	10.2%	R+61.7%	R+57.9%	R+3.8 ± 10.2
ROSSVILLE	39	23.1%	59.0%	17.9%	R+35.9%	R+33.1%	R+2.8 ± 17.9
WALNUT GROVE	124	9.7%	86.3%	4.0%	R+76.6%	R+66.4%	R+10.2 ± 4.0
▶ Whitfield (23 precincts)	1,830	28.2%	51.6%	20.2%	R+23.4%	R+32.2%	D+8.8 ± 20.2
1A	95	44.2%	30.5%	25.3%	D+13.7%	D+6.9%	D+6.8 ± 25.3
2A	124	29.0%	52.4%	18.5%	R+23.4%	R+20.7%	R+2.7 ± 18.5
3A	126	36.5%	54.8%	8.7%	R+18.3%	R+6.9%	R+11.4 ± 8.7
4A	124	29.8%	57.3%	12.9%	R+27.4%	R+10.9%	R+16.5 ± 12.9
5A	73	31.5%	9.6%	58.9%	D+21.9%	D+33.1%	R+11.2 ± 58.9
6A	44	29.5%	25.0%	45.5%	D+4.5%	D+27.3%	R+22.8 ± 45.5
AN	66	28.8%	19.7%	51.5%	D+9.1%	R+1.7%	D+10.8 ± 51.5
CA	51	11.8%	70.6%	17.6%	R+58.8%	R+49.0%	R+9.8 ± 17.6
CO	24	33.3%	45.8%	20.8%	R+12.5%	R+57.0%	D+44.5 ± 20.8
DG	105	24.8%	56.2%	19.0%	R+31.4%	R+20.6%	R+10.8 ± 19.0
ES	49	22.4%	34.7%	42.9%	R+12.2%	R+29.7%	D+17.5 ± 42.9
FI	50	44.0%	44.0%	12.0%	R+0.0%	R+34.0%	D+34.0 ± 12.0
GL	72	26.4%	59.7%	13.9%	R+33.3%	R+27.1%	R+6.2 ± 13.9
LT	44	15.9%	79.5%	4.5%	R+63.6%	R+70.2%	D+6.6 ± 4.5
MC	38	15.8%	73.7%	10.5%	R+57.9%	R+61.1%	D+3.2 ± 10.5
NI	65	30.8%	49.2%	20.0%	R+18.5%	R+56.8%	D+38.3 ± 20.0
PG	176	23.3%	61.4%	15.3%	R+38.1%	R+30.9%	R+7.2 ± 15.3
TH	128	30.5%	57.0%	12.5%	R+26.6%	R+48.5%	D+21.9 ± 12.5
TI	8	50.0%	37.5%	12.5%	D+12.5%	R+53.6%	D+66.1 ± 12.5
TR	40	10.0%	67.5%	22.5%	R+57.5%	R+63.0%	D+5.5 ± 22.5
UT	18	5.6%	77.8%	16.7%	R+72.2%	R+64.4%	R+7.8 ± 16.7
VA	205	26.8%	52.2%	21.0%	R+25.4%	R+44.2%	D+18.8 ± 21.0
WS	105	29.5%	61.0%	9.5%	R+31.4%	R+41.8%	D+10.4 ± 9.5
Total	22,706	33.0%	55.0%	12.1%

Dem% and Rep% are based on each voter's last partisan primary on record — not their 2024 vote choice. Voters with no primary history or non-partisan primaries are excluded from the lean calculation but included in the early vote totals.

Methodology

What this map shows: Each of the 142 precincts in Georgia’s 14th Congressional District is colored by the partisan composition of its 2026 early voters, based on each voter’s last partisan primary on record. This is not their 2024 general election vote, not an exit poll, and not a prediction of how they will vote in 2026. It is a measure of who is showing up to vote early, characterized by their primary history.

Data sources: Early voter list from the Georgia Secretary of State’s absentee ballot file (snapshot: February 23, 2026). Voter primary history from the GA SOS statewide voter history file (last updated October 2024). Precinct boundaries from the GA SOS 2024 precinct shapefile. 2024 CD-14 results from the GA SOS election results file.

Data collection and filtering: The GA SOS absentee file includes all voters across full counties, even where only part of a county falls within CD-14. To isolate only CD-14 voters, we filter to congressional_district = '014'. We also filter to ballot_status = 'A' (accepted ballots only), excluding any ballots that were requested but not returned, rejected, or cancelled. Finally, because the GA SOS file distributes the same voter across both per-county CSVs and a statewide CSV, we deduplicate by voter_registration_number before counting, keeping one record per voter. The query that produces the per-precinct counts is:

WITH deduped AS (
  SELECT
    voter_registration_number,
    county,
    county_precinct,
    ROW_NUMBER() OVER (
      PARTITION BY voter_registration_number
      ORDER BY ballot_return_date DESC
    ) AS rn
  FROM absentee_ballots_20260223
  WHERE congressional_district = '014'
    AND ballot_status = 'A'
)
SELECT
  ab.county,
  ab.county_precinct,
  COUNTIF(lp.normalized_party = 'Democrat')     AS dem,
  COUNTIF(lp.normalized_party = 'Republican')   AS rep,
  COUNTIF(lp.normalized_party = 'Non-Partisan') AS non_partisan,
  COUNTIF(lp.normalized_party IS NULL)           AS no_history,
  COUNT(*)                                       AS total_votes
FROM deduped ab
LEFT JOIN last_party_20241016 lp
  ON ab.voter_registration_number = lp.voter_registration
WHERE ab.rn = 1
GROUP BY ab.county, ab.county_precinct

The last_party_20241016 table contains each voter’s most recent partisan primary ballot as of October 2024, derived from the GA SOS statewide voter history file. The deduplication orders by ballot_return_date DESC, so in the rare case where a voter has more than one accepted CD-14 ballot on record, only the most recently returned one is counted.

Partisan lean calculation: EV Lean = Dem% minus Rep%, where percentages are calculated only among voters with a partisan primary history (Democrat or Republican). Voters with no primary history or a non-partisan primary are excluded from the lean calculation but are shown separately as the uncertainty margin. A positive value (blue) means more early voters last voted in a Democratic primary; negative (red) means more last voted in a Republican primary.

Precinct matching: 2026 absentee voter precincts are matched to 2024 precinct boundaries using a curated crosswalk. Two Chattooga County precincts (Subligna and Haywood) have no early voters yet and appear gray.

District boundaries: CD-14 as defined by the 2023 redistricting plan. Several counties are split; only precincts within CD-14 are included. Gordon County is not in CD-14 under the current district lines.