Data in this article is from the March 7th, 2026 snapshot, reflecting ballots accepted through Friday, March 6th. For full methodology and swing modeling, see the GA-14 Data Dashboard.
The Numbers
Early voting in the GA-14 special election closed on Friday, March 6. 60,268 ballots were accepted across the early voting period â 16.2% of the 372,297 total votes cast in the 2024 GA-14 general.
The last day of voting recorded the most early votes in one day at 6,319.
Week 3 (March 2-6) produced 20,511 ballots, roughly matching Week 1âs 22,690 and well above Week 2âs 17,046.
Party Composition
We classify each early voter by their most recent partisan primary participation: Republican primary, Democratic primary, or no history (the voter has not participated in a partisan primary in Georgia). This does not tell us how they voted in this race â it is a proxy for partisan lean drawn from voter file records.
Cumulative breakdown: Republican 58.0%, Democrat 28.3%, no history 12.3%, non-partisan 1.4%.
The Republican share grew steadily across all three weeks:
| Period | Total | R% | D% | No History% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 (Feb 16-21) | 22,690 | 55.0% | 33.0% | 10.6% |
| Week 2 (Feb 23-Mar 1) | 17,046 | 58.7% | 27.5% | 12.6% |
| Week 3 (Mar 2-6) | 20,511 | 60.9% | 23.6% | 14.0% |
On the final day alone, Republican-history voters made up 62.8% of ballots and Democrats 20.4%.
County Highlights
Paulding led total volume with 14,392 ballots, followed by Cobb at 13,868. Together they account for 47% of all early votes.
Cobb is the county to watch. Its Democratic share dropped sharply over the period: D+3.7 in Week 1 (46.1% D, 42.5% R) to R+18.1 in Week 3 (51.5% R, 33.4% D).
Walker more than doubled its output from Week 1 (1,094) to Week 3 (2,259), running 72-76% Republican throughout.
The table below uses a different methodology than the party composition section above. Rather than classifying voters by their primary history, we apply each precinctâs 2024 congressional vote share to the early voters from that precinct. âSim. Marginâ is the simulated two-party margin assuming these early voters vote the same way their precinct did in 2024. â2024 Marginâ is the actual 2024 congressional result for that county.
| County | Early Ballots | % of â24 Gen. | Sim. Margin | 2024 Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paulding | 14,392 | 16.5% | R+21.7 | R+21.0 |
| Cobb | 13,868 | 16.9% | R+4.3 | R+2.7 |
| Floyd | 7,547 | 17.3% | R+26.6 | R+32.9 |
| Catoosa | 6,765 | 19.7% | R+44.7 | R+45.5 |
| Walker | 4,744 | 15.1% | R+49.1 | R+48.9 |
| Whitfield | 4,536 | 11.7% | R+27.3 | R+32.2 |
| Polk | 3,213 | 17.1% | R+52.5 | R+54.3 |
| Chattooga | 1,896 | 18.0% | R+50.1 | R+52.0 |
| Murray | 1,845 | 10.8% | R+61.6 | R+63.0 |
| Dade | 1,456 | 18.3% | R+55.8 | R+57.1 |
Most counties track their 2024 results closely â the precincts turning out early voters are broadly representative of each county as a whole. Floyd (Sim R+26.6 vs. 2024 R+32.9) and Whitfield (Sim R+27.3 vs. 2024 R+32.2) are the exceptions: early voters in those counties came disproportionately from more Democratic-leaning precincts. Cobb simulates at R+4.3 against a 2024 baseline of R+2.7. District-wide, the simulated early vote margin is R+28.1.
Outlook
By our estimates, Republican-history voters make up roughly two-thirds of the early voting electorate, compared to Democratsâ one-third. In recent cycles, the partisan composition of Election Day voters has tracked early voting closely. (In earlier cycles, Democrats typically held an early voting advantage; that has not been the case in the past couple of years.)
With 21 candidates and no recent reliable polling, forecasting the result is difficult. Whether a Democrat makes the runoff depends on fragmentation of the Republican vote. The less fragmented it is, the more Republicansâ numerical advantage increases the likelihood that the top two vote-getters are both Republican. The more fragmented, the more likely Democratic votes coalesce behind a single candidate into one of those top spots.
What Comes Next
Election Day is tomorrow, Tuesday, March 10. Early voting sets the baseline, but Election Day typically accounts for the majority of votes in Georgia special elections. There are no useful intra-day data points on Election Day, so we will be waiting along with everyone else to see how this race turns out.
Questions? Get in touch at [email protected].
Civic Forge Solutions provides civic technology and data analysis services for progressive and Democratic candidates, campaigns, and committees. Based in Atlanta, Georgia.