Day 3: GA-14 Early Voting Update

It’s Day 3 of early voting in GA-14, and an estimated 7,796 ballots have been returned as of yesterday, February 17th. Early voting typically peaks on Mondays, Fridays, and at the beginning and end of the early voting period, which ends on March 6, 2026.

Data in this article is as-of yesterday, Feb 17th, 2026.

A Preview from State Senate District 18

Monday’s post discussed pathways to a Democratic victory, including scenarios where the Republican vote splits too thinly. Yesterday, we got a real-world example: the State Senate District 18 runoff, another jungle-format election, located immediately west of Macon.

In the first round, LeMario Nicholas Brown (D) received a plurality at 36.93% — but the five Republican candidates combined for a +26 point margin over Brown’s total.

In the runoff, Brown improved to 40.58% — a gain over his first-round share, but not enough for a majority.

So, that’s the bad news. What’s the maybe good news?

In the 2024 general election, no Democrat ran in this State Senate race — Republican John Kennedy was unopposed. In 2022, Kennedy faced Democrat Chris Benton and won by +28 points.

Brown picked up roughly +4 points from the first round to the runoff (36.93% → 40.58%) — not enough to flip a State Senate district. But if Republican-leaning areas across Georgia are seeing similar movement, that margin is enough to swing statewide races towards Democrats, should we see that in other districts.

GA-14 Early Voting Trends

Now, back to GA-14. We’re modeling the special election using precinct-level results from the 2024 CD-14 congressional race between Marjorie Taylor Greene (R) and Shawn Harris (D). In that race, Greene won by a margin of +29 points.

For Harris to win outright, we’d need approximately a 15-point shift compared to 2024. You can use the slider below to adjust the model with your own estimates.

Note: Some precincts have changed since 2024. Due to “apples-to-apples” methodology adjustments, these figures will not precisely match the official 2024 results.

A 15-point shift in GA-14 is, frankly, unlikely — but not impossible. The District 18 results and other recent elections nationwide suggest that statistically improbable swings toward Democrats can and do happen. Still, in ruby-red GA-14, the math is daunting. It’s very early to forecast, but a shift of that magnitude would likely depend on massive turnout from voters in Cobb and Paulding County precincts — areas that, while still Republican, have seen demographic changes more favorable to Democrats in recent years.

The most realistic (albeit unlikely) path to victory for Harris: either two Democrats finish in the top two in the first round, or a Democrat advances alongside a deeply unpopular Republican in the runoff.

County Breakdown

The table below estimates the partisan split of early voters by applying each precinct’s 2024 congressional two-party vote share (Greene vs Harris) to current absentee ballot counts. Since Georgia doesn’t report party affiliation on special election ballots, this is the best proxy we have.

Use the Uniform Swing slider to model “what if” scenarios. For example, try a D+4 swing — roughly what Brown gained from round one to the runoff in State Senate 18 — and see how the county-level estimates shift. A D+15 swing is the threshold where Harris could win outright, as discussed above.

CD-14 Precinct Map

The map below shows every precinct in CD-14, colored by its 2024 congressional margin. The deep red precincts in Dade, Murray, and Chattooga counties are where Greene ran up her largest margins. The competitive territory — and the key to any Democratic path — is in the Cobb and Paulding County precincts on the southeastern edge of the district, where margins were much tighter. Hover over any precinct for detailed vote and absentee data.

Questions? Get in touch at [email protected].

Correction (2/22/26): A calculation error, now fixed, over-represented the early vote counts in 2026. The figures presented in this article are the corrected and validated figures.

Civic Forge Solutions provides civic technology and data analysis services for progressive and Democratic candidates, campaigns, and committees. Based in Atlanta, Georgia.